برابهات باتنيك*- تعريب: هاني مشتاق ـ يتفق الجميع على أن النظام الرأسمالي يجتاز أزمة خطيرة، ولكن الناس على اختلافهم كل يقرأ الأزمة بطريقة مختلفة. فوجهة نظر الشيوعيين، ويتفق معها حتى علماء الاقتصاد التقدميين مثل بول كروغمان وجوزيف ستجلتز، وهي تقول بأن الأزمة بمجملها نتيجة لأنهيار «فقاعة» الإسكان، ونظراً لهذه الحال من الأزمة، فإن الإنفاق الخاص، سواء على الاستهلاك أو على الاستثمار، من غير المحتمل أن يزداد في المستقبل المنظور،
والنهوض به ثانية يمكن فقط من خلال زيادة في إنفاق الدولة، مما يعني أنه في كل من الولايات المتحدة وفي أوروبا، وبعيداً عن تبني إجراءات تقشفية، على الدولة أن تقوم بدل ذلك بزيادة إنفاقها. وحقيقة أن هذا العلاج الشافي لكل مظاهر الأزمة لم يتم تبنيه، جرى توضيحها بعدئذ من خلال «علم الاقتصاد السيئ» لصناع الرأي، و«سوء نية» الجمهوريين، وقساوة قلب اليمين، وهلم جرا. وجهة النظر هذه، باختصار، ترى الأزمة على وجه الحصر كظاهرة معزولة وتحدث لمرة واحدة.ووضع أو مأزق يحدث بالمصادفة أن يقع فيه اقتصاد الولايات المتحدة ومن ثم اقتصاد العالم بسبب انهيار الازدهار القائم على «فقاعة» والتي تسترت على إثارتها السياسية النقدية غير المسؤولة لمجلس الاحتياطي الفيدرالي في ظل رئاسة آلان غرينسبان.
أزمة هيكلية
المشكلة مع وجهة النظر هذه انها محدودة ومقيدة إلى أبعد الحدود، وهي لا ترى الحقيقة بكاملها. فالأزمة التي تسبب بها انهيار «فقاعة» الإسكان ما هي إلا جزء من الحكاية، فهي نفسها مستقرة ضمن أزمة هيكلية أساسية للنظام الرأسمالي. وفي الواقع لقد أبقى كل من «الدوت كوم» و «فقاعات» الإسكان هذه الأزمة الهيكلية مخفية، ومع انهيارهما فإننا لم نجد أمامنا فقط الأزمة التي تسبب بها هذا الأنهيار نفسه ولكن عبئها الثقيل على الأزمة الهيكلية التي تتكشف الآن أيضاً. نظراً لأن هذه الأزمة الهيكلية مغروسة في منطق النظام الرأسمالي، وما لدينا هو أزمة نظامية، وليست أزمة متقطعة أو دورية، حيث لا طريق للخروج منها. باختصار، لقد دخلنا مرحلة الأزمة المطولة للنظام الرأسمالي التي تذكر بعقد الثلاثينيات من القرن الماضي، والتي ستفتح ليس على الفور ولكن من خلال سلسلة متكاملة من التطورات السياسية التي سيطلق العنان لها، كما في الثلاثنيات والأربعينيات لاحتمالات وامكانيات ثورية حقيقية للتفوق على النظام وتجاوزه.
دعنا نبدأ من خلال طرح السؤال: لماذا يوجد معارضة مؤثرة جداً لانفاق الدولة كوسيلة للتغلب على الأزمة في كل من الولايات المتحدة واوروبا؟ ولماذا يوجد طلب دؤوب مؤيد «للتقشف» الذي يميل إلى مفاقمة الأزمة؟ أن تقول أن «علم الاقتصاد السيء» لا يكفي. «فعلم الاقتصاد» الذي يكتسب السيادة في أي وقت هو ذلك الذي تصادق عليه الطبقة المسيطرة (هو افتراض صحيح وحقيقي بشكل خاص عن علم الاقتصاد لان له علاقة بسياسة الدولة). و «علم الاقتصاد السيء» هو احد الآليات التي من خلالها تمارس المصالح المالية للشركات الكبرى والتي تهيمن على النظام الرأسمالي المعاصر ضغطها. لقد تم فرض «التقشف» لأن رأس المال المالي يعارض انفاق الدولة الواسع النطاق لتحفيز الاقتصاد.
ان هذه المصالح لا تعارض نشاطية الدولة في حد ذاتها، لكنها تريد لتلك النشاطية ان تأخذ شكل تقديم الحوافز لها هي، ولتعزيز مصالحها، كسبل لانعاش الاقتصاد. انها لا تريد فعل الدولة المباشر من اجل هذا الغرض من خلال انفاق عام أكبر. وأي فعل للدولة يعمل مستقلاً عن رأس المال المالي، والذي يسعى للعمل مباشرة بدلا ً من العمل من خلال تعزيز وتشجيع المصالح المالية للشركات الكبرى، يقوض ويضعف الشرعية الاجتماعية للنظام الرأسمالي، وبخاصة المصالح المالية للشركات الكبرى. نظراً لأنه يطرح السؤال التالي:إذا كان مطلوباً من الدولة ان تصلح وتثبت النظام، عندها لماذا تحتاج النظام ككل، ولماذا لا يكون لدينا ملكية الدولة نفسها ؟ لذلك فإن رأس المال المالي في الولايات المتحدة لا اعتراضات لديه حيال الثلاثة عشر تريليون دولار من دعم الدولة لاستقرار وترسيخ النظام المالي، ولكن في اللحظة التي يطرح فيها السؤال حول انفاق الدولة لانعاش الاقتصاد، تبدأ هذه المصالح في الوعظ والتبشير بفضائل وميزات «التقشف». ان عهد سيطرة المال بسبب ذلك هو حيث «تدخل الدولة في إدارة الطلب» وفقاً لكينز.
الآن، النظام الرأسمالي يتطلب دائماً بعض التحفيز خارجي النمو من اجل ادامة نموه. إنه يستطيع إدامة النمو كلياً على قوته الخاصة، بمعنى كلياً لأن النمو يحدث، لبعض الوقت، ولكن إذا ما اضمحل النمو لأي سبب، بما في ذلك بروز اختناقات بسبب النمو نفسه عندئذ يتشكل شكل لولبي من الاستثمارالأدنى والنمو الهابط والذي بواسطته ينقله باتجاه حالة ثابتة ومستقرة، أي بمعنى باتجاه حالة إعادة إنتاج بسيط. ولإنقاذ النظام وتخليصه من إعادة الإنتاج البسيط وضمان أن النمو لا يفقد قوة دفعه أو ينهار متراجعاً إلى حالة من إعادة الإنتاج البسيط فإنه الشيء الذي يجري ضمانه من خلال عمل مجموعة من التحفيز خارجي النمو أو المنشأ.
المحفز الخارجي
تاريخياً، لقد لعب هذا الدور مجموعتان من التحفيز خارجي المنشأ الأولى هي كامل النظام الاستعماري الذي لعب هذا الدور حتى الحرب العالمية الأولى. وقد استخدم مصطلح «النظام الاستعماري» هنا ليس لمجرد الإشارة إلى الاستيلاء والتملك الاستعماري ونصف الاستعماري كما في الهند والصين، ولكن أيضاً إلى ما سمي «المستوطنات الاستعمارية» التي طرد منها «سكانها الاصليين» لإيواء المهاجرين من المركز الرأسمالي. وقد دعم النظام الاستعماري النمو في ظل النظام الرأسمالي في الاسلوب التالي: إلى جانب هجرة السكان إلى المستوطنات الاستعمارية أو المناطق المعتدلة المناخ من مستوطنات البيض، كان هناك أيضاً هجرة موازية لرأس المال إلى هذه المناطق من المركز الرأسمالي إلا أن هذا «التصدير لرأس المال» من المركز صار ممكناً من خلال الاستيلاء على الفائض من الممتلكات الاستعمارية ونصف الاستعمارية «المستقلة اسمياً» وهكذا فإن «نزف» الفائض دون أي مقابل من الهند والمستعمرات الأخرى حول صادرات رأس المال من المركز الرأسمالي إلى المستوطنات الاستعمارية. ولكن ضمن هذه الحركات في أحجام ومبالغ «القيمة» كان هناك أيضاً تغييرات هامة تتعلق ببنية السلعة: فبريطانيا، البلد الرأسمالي القيادي وأيضاً البلد القيادي في تصدير - رأس المال، لم تنتج السلع والبضائع التي كان عليها طلب عال من المستوطنات الاستعمارية، مثل الولايات المتحدة. والطلب هناك كان ضخماً على المواد الخام أي المعادن والسلع الأساسية، التي أنتجت في الممتلكات الاستعمارية. لهذا السبب فإن صادرات بريطانيا الرئيسة صارت ممكنة أولاً من خلال السلع والبضائع البريطانية مثل الاجواخ التي بيعت في الأسواق الهندية والشرقية الأخرى، والسلع والبضائع التي صدرت من هذه البلدان إلى بلدان مثيلة أو حيث حدث «النزف» أو حتى إلى حد أكبر من هذه البلدان. وقد أمكن بيع السلع البريطانية في البلدان المستعمرة ونصف المستعمرة لأنه كان هناك أسواقاً «جاهزة للاستعمال» وأسواقها يمكن استخدامها لتنزيل البضائع البريطانية، إلى الحد المطلوب، في أي وقت.
هذا النموذج الخالص من الحركة العالمية لرأس المال والسلع والذي كان ملائماً ومريحاً جداً من وجهة نظر المركز الرأسمالي، أسفر عن الازدهار الطويل جداً الذي شهده النظام الرأسمالي من أواسط القرن التاسع عشر وحتى الحرب العالمية الأولى. وبعد هذه الحرب، انهار هذا النموذج. فقد أراد البرجوازيون المحليون في المستعمرات الحيز أو المساحة الخاصة بهم، فاليابان برزت كمنافس لبريطانيا في الأسواق الآسيوية وصار المجال للاستثمار في العالم الجديد مستنزفاً مع «الإغلاق للحدود»، كما أن المجال لمزيد من خفض التصنيع في اقتصادات مثل الهند بدأ أيضاً يصبح أكثر فأكثر محدوداً. وكان الكساد العظيم في ثلاثينيات القرن الماضي تعبيراً عن حقيقة أن الآلية القديمة للتعويم المحفز في النظام الرأسمالي لم تعد تؤدي وظيفتها.
وقد انتهى الكساد فقط عندما أصبح المحفز الخارجي المنشأ الثاني للنظام الرأسمالي أي إنفاق الدولة، نافذ المفعول، أولاً من أجل تحضيرات الحرب، وما بعد الحرب، تحت تأثير ضغط الطبقة العاملة وتهديد الاشتراكية، لإدخال بعض تدابير وإجراءات «رفاهية الدولة». ولكن تدخل الدولة في إدارة الطلب يأخذ الآن مجراه المألوف: بروز رأس المال المالي العالمي كقوة مهيمنة تحت مظلة النظام الرأسمالي، ولأسباب أشير اليها سابقاً، قد أضعف الفرصة من أجله. إن النظام الرأسمالي باختصار يفتقر الآن إلى أية آلية لنقل النمو المستدام له.
الأجور الحقيقية المتدنية
وعلاوة على ذلك، يحدث هذا في الظروف التي تصبح فيها الحاجة لمثل هكذا آلية حادة وملحة. دعنا ننظر في سبب هذا. مع العولمة يكون هناك تدفق أكثر حرية وانسياباً لرأس المال، بما في ذلك على شكل مال وأيضاً على شكل سلع وخدمات، عبر البلدان أكثر من أي وقت في تاريخ الرأسمالية. ونتيجة لذلك، فإن رأس المال من العاصمة (إلى جانب رأس المال المحلي الكبير) يمكنه أن يجعل مقر الإنتاج في بلدان العالم الثالث، حيث الاجور متدنية بسبب وجود احتياطي ضخم من القوى العاملة، وتصدير هذا الإنتاح إلى الأسواق في المدن الرئيسية. وهذا بدوره يجعل أجور العمال في البلدان الكبيرة غير محصنة وعرضة للسقوط باتجاه الانحدار الذي يمارس من خلال الاحتياطات العملية الموجودة في بلدان العالم الثالث. وفي الولايات المتحدة، على سبيل المثال، تدنى معدل الأجور الحقيقية للعمال في العقود الثلاثة الأخيرة قرابة 30%.
في بلدان العالم الثالث بدروها، لا يبدو الأمر وكأن معدل الأجور الحقيقي يزداد، على العكس تماماً، فعدم الشفقة وتهجير صغار المنتجين بما في ذلك الفلاحون، وهي سمة مميزة اخرى للعولمة، يستتبع تضخم الجيش الاحتياطي للعمال والذي يمارس أيضاً ضغطاً باتجاه الهبوط على معدل الأجر الحقيقي للعمال الذين يشكلون جيش العمال النشط للنظام الرأسمالي. ومع أخذ اقتصاد العالم ككل، لذلك، هناك ميل بالنسبة لمعدل الأجر الحقيقي للعمال نحو التدني، أو على أقل تقدير، ان لا يزداد. وفي الوقت نفسه، ومن ناحية اخرى، هناك زيادة ثابتة في إنتاجية العامل بما يعني أن حصة فضل القيمة في الإنتاج الاجمالي تزداد.
والآن، نظراً لأن روبية إنتاج تأتي للعمال تعطي زيادة لكمية أكبر بكثير من الاستهلاك الذي تعطية روبية تأتي للرأسماليين، فأية زيادة في حصة فضل القيمة في الإنتاج لها، وأشياء أخرى تبقى على حالها، تأثير في إضعاف الطلب. وإذا ازدادت استثمارات الرأسماليين عندما تأتيهم الروبية الزائدة، عند ذلك هذا التأثير المهبط للطلب يمكن أن يتم التغلب عليه، ويمكن أن يتحقق المحصول المنتج الكلي. ولكن، فقد رأينا بالفعل أن الميل بالنسبة لاستثمار الرأسماليين، بعيداً عن الزيادة، سيبقى منكمشاً أو منخفضاً في غياب أية آلية للنمو المستدام. والنتيجة الصافية لذلك هي ميل واضح باتجاه أزمة الإنتاج الفائض. والدولة الرأسمالية التي استطاعت توفير ترياق لهذا الميل باتجاه الإنتاج الفائض من خلال تصعيد انفاقها. وبذلك تمتص جزءاً أكبر من فضل القيمة وتساعد على تحقيقه. لا يستطيع فعل هذا بسبب معارضة رأس المال المالي لإنفاق أكبر من الدولة.
وبناء عليه يتبع ذلك أن إضعاف الدولة الرأسمالية كمزود أو معيل للطلب ساعة يشاء المرء، لا يترك فقط رأسمالية العالم دون المحفز الخارجي المنشأ الأساسي والضروري من أجل المحافظة على النمو المستدام، ولكن أيضاً يدفعها أكثر نحو ركود وفساد. ولسبب إضافي، أي الميل لدفع حصة فضل القيمة نحو الزيادة في إنتاج العالم. إن النظام الرأسمالي العالمي بهذه الطريقة واقع في شرك أزمة هيكلية عميقة لا وجود لطرق واضحة للهرب والخلاص منها. ولا يعني هذا القول بأن النظام الرأسمالي سينهار، لأن هذا لا يحدث إطلاقاً. ولكن، كما في ثلاثينيات القرن الماضي، أزمة جديدة تبزغ وهي حبلى بالاحتمالات والإمكانيات التاريخية لتجاوز النظام والتفوق عليه.
*أمين عام الحزب الشيوعي الهندي الماركسي
عن- صحيفة بيبولز ديمكراسي
الناطقة باسم الحزب الشيوعي الهندي (الماركسي)
http://kassioun.org/index.php?mode=article&id=19032
mardi 6 mars 2012
lundi 20 février 2012
jeudi 16 février 2012
lundi 6 février 2012
Currency Warfare: What are the Real Targets of the E.U. Oil Embargo against Iran?
Against whom is the European Union’s so-called “oil embargo on Iran” really aimed at?
This is an important geo-strategic question. Aside from rejecting the new E.U. measures against Iran as counter-productive, Tehran has warned the member states of the European Union that the E.U. oil embargo against Iran will hurt them and their economies far more than Iran.
Tehran has thus warned the leaders of the E.U. countries that the new sanctions are foolish and against their national and bloc interests. But is this correct? At the end of the day, who will benefit from the chain of events that are being set into motion?
Oil Embargos against Iran are Not New
In 1951, the Iranian government of Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh with the support of the Iranian Parliament nationalized the Iranian oil industry. As a result of Dr. Mossadegh’s nationalization program, the British militarily blockaded the territorial waters and national ports of Iran with the British Royal Navy and prevented Iran from exporting its oil. They also militarily prevented Iranian trade. London also froze Iranian assets and started a campaign to isolate Iran with sanctions. The government of Dr. Mossadegh was democratic and could not be vilified easily domestically by the British, so they began to portray Mossadegh as a pawn of the Soviet Union who would turn Iran into a communist country together with his Marxist political allies.
The illegal British naval embargo was followed by regime change in Tehran via a 1953 Anglo-American engineered coup d’état. The 1953 coup transformed the Shah of Iran from a constitutional figure head to an absolute monarch and dictator, like the monarchs of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar. Iran was transformed overnight from a democratic constitutional monarchy into a dictatorship.
Today, a militarily imposed oil embargo against Iran is not possible like it was in the early 1950s. Instead London and Washington use the language of righteousness and hide behind false pretexts about Iranian nuclear weapons. Like in the 1950s, the oil embargo against Iran is tied to regime change. Yet, there are also broader objectives that go beyond the boundaries of Iran tied to Washington’s project to impose an oil embargo against the Iranians.
The European Union and Iranian Oil Sales
Iran’s largest customer for oil is the People’s Republic of China. According to the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), which was created after the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo as the strategic wing of the Western Bloc’s Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Iran exports 543,000 oil barrels per day to China. Iran’s other large customers are India, Turkey, Japan, and South Korea. India imports 341,000 barrels per day from Iran, Turkey imports 370,000 barrels per day from Iran, Japan imports 251,000 barrels per day from Iran, and South Korea imports 239,000 barrels per day from Iran.
According to the Iranian Ministry of Petroleum the European Union only accounts for 18% of Iranian oil exports, which means less than one-fifth of Iranian oil sales. Only “collectively” is the European Union the second largest customer of Iran. All the E.U. countries together import 510,000 barrels per day from Iran. This collective rank that all Iranian oil importing E.U. countries have together is being highlighted by those that want to emphasize the effectiveness of the E.U. oil embargo against Iran.
Iran can replace oil sales to the European Union via new buyers or by increasing sales to existing customers like China and India. An Iranian agreement to work with China for stockpiling Chinese strategic reserves would fill a large portion of the vacuum left by the European Union. Thus, the oil embargo against Iran will have minimal direct effects on Iran. Rather, it is most likely that any of the effects that the Iranian economy feels will be tied to the global ramifications of the oil embargo against Iran.
Iran and Global Currency Warfare
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), both the U.S. dollar and the euro together constitute 84.4% of the world’s currency exchange reserves (end of 2011 date). The U.S. dollar alone, was the largest share of the world’s currency exchange reserves in 2011, namely 61.7%.
Energy sales are an important part of this equation, because the American dollar is tied to the oil trade.
Thus, oil trade, through what is called the petro-dollar, is helping sustain the American dollar’s international standing. Countries around the world have been virtually forced to use the U.S. dollar to maintain their energy and trade needs and transactions.
To highlight the importance of the international oil trade to the U.S., all the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members – Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates – have their national currencies pegged to the U.S. dollar and thereby sustain the petro-dollar by trading oil in American dollars. Moreover, the currencies of Lebanon, Jordan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Belize, and several tropical islands in the Caribbean Sea are also all pegged to the U.S. dollar. Aside from the overseas territories of the United States, El Salvador, Ecuador, and Panama also all officially use the U.S. dollar as their national currencies.
The euro on the other hand is both a rival of the U.S. dollar as well as an allied currency. Both currencies work in tandem against other currencies in many cases and seem to be controlled by increasingly merging centres of financial power.
Aside from the seventeen European Union members using the euro as their currency, the Principality of Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City have issuing rights and both Montenegro and the Albanian-majority Serbian province of Kosovo also use the euro as their national currencies. Outside of the euro area (Eurozone), the currencies of Bosnia, Bulgaria, Denmark, Latvia, and Lithuania in Europe; the currencies of Cape Verde, Comoros, Morocco, the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe, and the two CFA zones in Africa; and the currencies of several Western European overseas dependencies, such as Greenland, are all pegged to the euro.
Several monetary zones are directly tied to the euro. In Oceania, the Comptoirs Français du Pacifique (CFP) franc, simply called the Pacific franc (franc pacifique), used in a monetary union of the French dependencies of French Polynesia, New Caledonia, and the Territory of the Wallis and Futuna Islands is pegged to the euro. As mentioned earlier, both the CFA zones in Africa are also pegged to the euro. Thus, both the Financial Community of Africa (Communauté financière d’Afrique, CFA) franc or West African CFA franc in West Africa – used by Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo – and the Financial Cooperation in Central Africa (Coopération financière en Afrique central, CFA) franc or Central African CFA franc – used by Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Chad, the Republic of the Congo (Congo-Brazzaville), Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon – have their fates tied to the monetary value of the euro.
Iran is not looking for military confrontation in the rising hostilities with the United States and European Union. Despite the warped narrative being presented, Tehran has said that it will only close the Strait of Hormuz as a last resort. The Iranians have also said that they will not let U.S. or hostile ships go through Iranian territorial water, which is their legal right, and that hostile ships could navigate through Oman’s territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz instead. As a side note, among other things, the problem for the U.S. and Iran’s other adversaries is that the waters on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz are too shallow.
Instead of military confrontation, Tehran is fighting back economically in several ways. The first step, which started before 2012, was Iranian international oil sales and trade were diversified in regards to their currency transactions. This is part of a calculated move by Iran to move away from using the American dollar just like Saddam Hussein of Iraq did in 2000 as a means to fight back against the sanctions imposed on Iraq. In this context, Iran has created an international energy exchange or bourse competing with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and London’s International Petroleum Exchange (IPE), which both operate using the American dollar for transactions. This energy exchange, called the Kish Oil Bourse, was officially opened in August 2011 on Kish Island in the Persian Gulf. Its first transactions were made using the euro and the Emirati dirhem.
In context of euro and U.S. dollar rivalries, the Iranians originally wanted to turn to the euro and a petro-euro system with the hope that the competition between the American dollar and the euro would make the European Union an ally of Iran and de-link the E.U. from the United States. As political tensions have mounted with the E.U., the petro-euro has become less attractive for Tehran. Iran has realized that the European Union is submissive to U.S. interests under corrupt leaders. Thus, to a lesser extent, Iran has also tried to move away from the euro.
Moreover, Iran has broadened its move away from the use of the U.S. dollar and the euro as policy in bilateral trade relations. Iran and India are talking about gold payments for Iranian oil. Iranian and Russian trade is conducted in Iranian rials and Russian roubles, while Iranian trade with China and other Asian countries is conducted using the Chinese renminbi, Iranian rial, Japanese yen, and other non-dollar and non-euro currencies.
While the euro could have been a big winner from a petro-euro system, the actions of the European Union have worked against this. The E.U. oil embargo against Iran is merely hammering the nails in the coffin. Globally, the emerging matrix of Eurasian and international trade and transaction outside of the umbrellas of the American dollar and the euro is weakening both currencies. The Iranian Parliament is now passing legislation to cut oil exports to the members of the European Union that will be part of the sanctions regime until they rescind the Iranian oil sanctions. The Iranian move will be a blow to the euro, especially since the European Union will not have time to prepare for the Iranian energy cuts.
There are several possibilities that could emerge. One of them is that this could be part of what Washington wants and it could be playing into its hands against the European Union. Another is that the U.S. and specific E.U. members are working together against strategic economic rivals and other markets.
Who Benefits? The Economic Targets are beyond Iran...
The end of Iranian oil exports to the European Union and the decline of the euro will directly benefit the United States and the U.S. dollar. What the European Union is doing is merely weakening itself and giving the U.S. dollar the upper hand in its currency rivalry against the euro. Moreover, should the euro collapse, the American dollar will quickly fill much of the void. Despite the fact that Russia will benefit from higher oil prices and greater leverage over E.U. energy security as a supplier, the Kremlin has also warned the European Union that it is working against its own interests and subordinating itself to Washington.
Many important questions are at play about the economic consequences of increased oil prices.
Will the European Union be able to weather the economic storm or a currency collapse?
What the E.U. oil embargo against Iran will do is destabilize the euro and snowball globally hurting non-E.U. economies. In this regard, Tehran has warned that the U.S. aims to hurt rival economies through the adoption of E.U. oil sanctions against Iran. Within this line of thinking, this is the reason why the U.S. is trying to force China, India, South Korea, and Japan in Asia to reduce or cut Iranian oil imports.
Within the European Union, it will be the most fragile and struggling economies, such as Greece and Spain, which will be hurt by the E.U. oil embargo against Iran.
The oil refineries in the European Union countries that import Iranian oil will have to find new sellers as sources and will also be forced to adjust their operations. Piero De Simone, one of the leaders of Italy’s Unione Petrolifera, has warned that approximately seventy oil refineries in the E.U. could be shutdown and that Asian countries could start selling refined Iranian oil to the European Union at the expense of the local refineries and the local petroleum industries.
Despite the political claims supporting an oil embargo against Iran, neither will Saudi Arabia be able to fill the void of Iranian oil exports to the European Union or other markets. A shortfall in oil supplies and the production changes could have spiralling effects in the European Union and on the costs of industrial production, transportation, and market prices. The prediction is that the E.U. will effectively be deepening the crisis in the euro area or Eurozone.
Moreover, the rise in everyday prices, ranging from food to transportation, will not be limited to the European Union, but will have global ramifications. As prices rise on a global scale, the economies in Latin American, Caribbean, African, Middle Eastern, Asian, and Pacific countries will face new hardship, which the financial sector in the U.S. and several of its partners – including members of the European Union – could capitalize on by taking over certain sectors and markets. The IMF and World Bank, as the Bretton Woods proxies of Wall Street, could get into the mix and impose more privatization programs benefiting the financial sectors of the U.S. and its main partners. Furthermore, how Iran decides to sell the 18% of oil it will stop selling to E.U. members will also be a mediating factor.
The Ghosts of the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo: Libya and the International Energy Agency
While countries in Africa or the Pacific have no strategic oil reserves and will be at the mercy of global price increases, the U.S. and the European Union have worked and tried to strategically insulate themselves from such scenarios. This is where the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) comes into the picture. Libyan oil reserves are also a factor to the hostilities and petro-politics involving Iran.
The IEA was created after the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo. As mentioned earlier it is a “strategic wing of the Western Bloc’s Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).” The OECD is a club of countries that includes the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Denmark, Japan, Canada, South Korea, Turkey, Australia, Israel, and New Zealand. It is essentially based on the contours of the Western Bloc, which is comprised of America’s allies and satellites. Aside from Israel, Chile, Estonia, Iceland, Slovenia, and Mexico all the members of the OECD are members of the IEA.
Since its creation in 1974, one of the responsibilities of the IEA has been to stock strategic oil reserves for the OECD countries. During the NATO war against Libya the IEA actually opened its strategic oil reserves to compensate for the void left by a lack of Libyan oil exports. The only other two times this happened were in 1991, when Washington led a military coalition in its first war against Iraq, and in 2005, when Hurricane Katrina devastated the United States.
The war in Libya had many purposes:
(1) preventing African unity;
(2) driving China out of Africa;
(3) strategically controlling important energy reserves; and
(4) guarding oil supplies in the scenario of any American-led conflicts against Syria and Iran.
What the NATO war in Libya has done is secure oil output from Libya, because there was a chance that the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya under Colonial Muammar Qaddafi could have suspended oil sales to the European Union in support of Syria or Iran in possible conflicts with the U.S., NATO, and Israel. It is also interesting to note that one of the Libyan figures that helped enable the war against Libya in the United Nations was Sliman Bouchuiguir, the head of the Libyan League for Human Rights (LLHR) and the current Libyan ambassador to Switzerland, who worked on formulating a strategy against allowing oil from being used as a strategic weapon to insure that the 1973 oil crisis never repeat itself for the U.S. and its allies.
Aside from Iran, the Syrians have also been a source of oil imports for the European Union. Like Iran, the E.U. has also cut their bloc off from Syrian oil via a sanctions regime engineered by the U.S. government. With Iranian and Syrian oil cut off from the E.U., the strategic value of Libyan oil rises. In this regard, the reports about the deployment of thousands of U.S. troops to Libyan oil fields can also be analyzed as being coordinated or tied to the growing U.S. and E.U. hostilities with Syria and Iran. Rerouting Libyan oil shipments to the E.U. that were intended for China can also be part of such a strategy.
The Psychological War
In reality, the sanctions regime engineered by the U.S. government against Iran has gone as far as it can go. All the speeches about Iranian isolation are bravado and far from the reality of current international relations and trade. Brazil, Russia, China, India, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and various countries in the post-Soviet space, Asia, Africa, and Latin America have all refused to join the sanctions against the Iranian economy.
The E.U. oil embargo, coupled with the broader sanctions against Iran, has broad psychological implications. Iran and its ally Syria both face a multi-dimensional war that has economic, covert, diplomatic, media, and psychological scopes.
The psychological war, which involves the mainstream media as a tool of foreign policy and war, constitutes an efficient propaganda instrument for the U.S. due to its lower costs. Yet, the psychological war can be fought on both sides.
Much of the power of the U.S. is psychological and tied to fear. Like the geography of the Persian Gulf, time is on Iran’s side and working against the United States.
If Iran continues on its present course and is undeterred by sanctions, this will help break a critical psychological threshold, which around the world tends to discourage countries from confronting and opposing the United States.
Should many countries continue to refuse to bow down to the Obama Administration pertaining to the impostion of sanctions against Iran, this will also be a blow to the prestige and power of the U.S., which would also have economic and financial implications.
Moreover, at the end of the day, the E.U. oil embargo will hurt the E.U. instead of Iran. In the long-term it could also hurt the United States.
Structurally, the effects of the E.U. oil embargo will further entrench the E.U. in the orbit of Washington, but these effects will catalyze growing social opposition to Washington, which will eventually manifest in the political and economic arenas.
Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya is a Sociologist and award-winning author. He is a Research Associate at the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), Montreal. He specializes on the Middle East and Central Asia. He has been a contributor and guest discussing the broader Middle East on numerous international programs and networks such as Al Jazeera, Press TV, teleSUR and Russia Today. His writings have been published in more than ten languages. He also writes for the Strategic Culture Foundation (SCF), Moscow.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=28973
This is an important geo-strategic question. Aside from rejecting the new E.U. measures against Iran as counter-productive, Tehran has warned the member states of the European Union that the E.U. oil embargo against Iran will hurt them and their economies far more than Iran.
Tehran has thus warned the leaders of the E.U. countries that the new sanctions are foolish and against their national and bloc interests. But is this correct? At the end of the day, who will benefit from the chain of events that are being set into motion?
Oil Embargos against Iran are Not New
In 1951, the Iranian government of Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh with the support of the Iranian Parliament nationalized the Iranian oil industry. As a result of Dr. Mossadegh’s nationalization program, the British militarily blockaded the territorial waters and national ports of Iran with the British Royal Navy and prevented Iran from exporting its oil. They also militarily prevented Iranian trade. London also froze Iranian assets and started a campaign to isolate Iran with sanctions. The government of Dr. Mossadegh was democratic and could not be vilified easily domestically by the British, so they began to portray Mossadegh as a pawn of the Soviet Union who would turn Iran into a communist country together with his Marxist political allies.
The illegal British naval embargo was followed by regime change in Tehran via a 1953 Anglo-American engineered coup d’état. The 1953 coup transformed the Shah of Iran from a constitutional figure head to an absolute monarch and dictator, like the monarchs of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar. Iran was transformed overnight from a democratic constitutional monarchy into a dictatorship.
Today, a militarily imposed oil embargo against Iran is not possible like it was in the early 1950s. Instead London and Washington use the language of righteousness and hide behind false pretexts about Iranian nuclear weapons. Like in the 1950s, the oil embargo against Iran is tied to regime change. Yet, there are also broader objectives that go beyond the boundaries of Iran tied to Washington’s project to impose an oil embargo against the Iranians.
The European Union and Iranian Oil Sales
Iran’s largest customer for oil is the People’s Republic of China. According to the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), which was created after the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo as the strategic wing of the Western Bloc’s Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Iran exports 543,000 oil barrels per day to China. Iran’s other large customers are India, Turkey, Japan, and South Korea. India imports 341,000 barrels per day from Iran, Turkey imports 370,000 barrels per day from Iran, Japan imports 251,000 barrels per day from Iran, and South Korea imports 239,000 barrels per day from Iran.
According to the Iranian Ministry of Petroleum the European Union only accounts for 18% of Iranian oil exports, which means less than one-fifth of Iranian oil sales. Only “collectively” is the European Union the second largest customer of Iran. All the E.U. countries together import 510,000 barrels per day from Iran. This collective rank that all Iranian oil importing E.U. countries have together is being highlighted by those that want to emphasize the effectiveness of the E.U. oil embargo against Iran.
Iran can replace oil sales to the European Union via new buyers or by increasing sales to existing customers like China and India. An Iranian agreement to work with China for stockpiling Chinese strategic reserves would fill a large portion of the vacuum left by the European Union. Thus, the oil embargo against Iran will have minimal direct effects on Iran. Rather, it is most likely that any of the effects that the Iranian economy feels will be tied to the global ramifications of the oil embargo against Iran.
Iran and Global Currency Warfare
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), both the U.S. dollar and the euro together constitute 84.4% of the world’s currency exchange reserves (end of 2011 date). The U.S. dollar alone, was the largest share of the world’s currency exchange reserves in 2011, namely 61.7%.
Energy sales are an important part of this equation, because the American dollar is tied to the oil trade.
Thus, oil trade, through what is called the petro-dollar, is helping sustain the American dollar’s international standing. Countries around the world have been virtually forced to use the U.S. dollar to maintain their energy and trade needs and transactions.
To highlight the importance of the international oil trade to the U.S., all the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members – Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates – have their national currencies pegged to the U.S. dollar and thereby sustain the petro-dollar by trading oil in American dollars. Moreover, the currencies of Lebanon, Jordan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Belize, and several tropical islands in the Caribbean Sea are also all pegged to the U.S. dollar. Aside from the overseas territories of the United States, El Salvador, Ecuador, and Panama also all officially use the U.S. dollar as their national currencies.
The euro on the other hand is both a rival of the U.S. dollar as well as an allied currency. Both currencies work in tandem against other currencies in many cases and seem to be controlled by increasingly merging centres of financial power.
Aside from the seventeen European Union members using the euro as their currency, the Principality of Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City have issuing rights and both Montenegro and the Albanian-majority Serbian province of Kosovo also use the euro as their national currencies. Outside of the euro area (Eurozone), the currencies of Bosnia, Bulgaria, Denmark, Latvia, and Lithuania in Europe; the currencies of Cape Verde, Comoros, Morocco, the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe, and the two CFA zones in Africa; and the currencies of several Western European overseas dependencies, such as Greenland, are all pegged to the euro.
Several monetary zones are directly tied to the euro. In Oceania, the Comptoirs Français du Pacifique (CFP) franc, simply called the Pacific franc (franc pacifique), used in a monetary union of the French dependencies of French Polynesia, New Caledonia, and the Territory of the Wallis and Futuna Islands is pegged to the euro. As mentioned earlier, both the CFA zones in Africa are also pegged to the euro. Thus, both the Financial Community of Africa (Communauté financière d’Afrique, CFA) franc or West African CFA franc in West Africa – used by Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo – and the Financial Cooperation in Central Africa (Coopération financière en Afrique central, CFA) franc or Central African CFA franc – used by Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Chad, the Republic of the Congo (Congo-Brazzaville), Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon – have their fates tied to the monetary value of the euro.
Iran is not looking for military confrontation in the rising hostilities with the United States and European Union. Despite the warped narrative being presented, Tehran has said that it will only close the Strait of Hormuz as a last resort. The Iranians have also said that they will not let U.S. or hostile ships go through Iranian territorial water, which is their legal right, and that hostile ships could navigate through Oman’s territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz instead. As a side note, among other things, the problem for the U.S. and Iran’s other adversaries is that the waters on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz are too shallow.
Instead of military confrontation, Tehran is fighting back economically in several ways. The first step, which started before 2012, was Iranian international oil sales and trade were diversified in regards to their currency transactions. This is part of a calculated move by Iran to move away from using the American dollar just like Saddam Hussein of Iraq did in 2000 as a means to fight back against the sanctions imposed on Iraq. In this context, Iran has created an international energy exchange or bourse competing with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and London’s International Petroleum Exchange (IPE), which both operate using the American dollar for transactions. This energy exchange, called the Kish Oil Bourse, was officially opened in August 2011 on Kish Island in the Persian Gulf. Its first transactions were made using the euro and the Emirati dirhem.
In context of euro and U.S. dollar rivalries, the Iranians originally wanted to turn to the euro and a petro-euro system with the hope that the competition between the American dollar and the euro would make the European Union an ally of Iran and de-link the E.U. from the United States. As political tensions have mounted with the E.U., the petro-euro has become less attractive for Tehran. Iran has realized that the European Union is submissive to U.S. interests under corrupt leaders. Thus, to a lesser extent, Iran has also tried to move away from the euro.
Moreover, Iran has broadened its move away from the use of the U.S. dollar and the euro as policy in bilateral trade relations. Iran and India are talking about gold payments for Iranian oil. Iranian and Russian trade is conducted in Iranian rials and Russian roubles, while Iranian trade with China and other Asian countries is conducted using the Chinese renminbi, Iranian rial, Japanese yen, and other non-dollar and non-euro currencies.
While the euro could have been a big winner from a petro-euro system, the actions of the European Union have worked against this. The E.U. oil embargo against Iran is merely hammering the nails in the coffin. Globally, the emerging matrix of Eurasian and international trade and transaction outside of the umbrellas of the American dollar and the euro is weakening both currencies. The Iranian Parliament is now passing legislation to cut oil exports to the members of the European Union that will be part of the sanctions regime until they rescind the Iranian oil sanctions. The Iranian move will be a blow to the euro, especially since the European Union will not have time to prepare for the Iranian energy cuts.
There are several possibilities that could emerge. One of them is that this could be part of what Washington wants and it could be playing into its hands against the European Union. Another is that the U.S. and specific E.U. members are working together against strategic economic rivals and other markets.
Who Benefits? The Economic Targets are beyond Iran...
The end of Iranian oil exports to the European Union and the decline of the euro will directly benefit the United States and the U.S. dollar. What the European Union is doing is merely weakening itself and giving the U.S. dollar the upper hand in its currency rivalry against the euro. Moreover, should the euro collapse, the American dollar will quickly fill much of the void. Despite the fact that Russia will benefit from higher oil prices and greater leverage over E.U. energy security as a supplier, the Kremlin has also warned the European Union that it is working against its own interests and subordinating itself to Washington.
Many important questions are at play about the economic consequences of increased oil prices.
Will the European Union be able to weather the economic storm or a currency collapse?
What the E.U. oil embargo against Iran will do is destabilize the euro and snowball globally hurting non-E.U. economies. In this regard, Tehran has warned that the U.S. aims to hurt rival economies through the adoption of E.U. oil sanctions against Iran. Within this line of thinking, this is the reason why the U.S. is trying to force China, India, South Korea, and Japan in Asia to reduce or cut Iranian oil imports.
Within the European Union, it will be the most fragile and struggling economies, such as Greece and Spain, which will be hurt by the E.U. oil embargo against Iran.
The oil refineries in the European Union countries that import Iranian oil will have to find new sellers as sources and will also be forced to adjust their operations. Piero De Simone, one of the leaders of Italy’s Unione Petrolifera, has warned that approximately seventy oil refineries in the E.U. could be shutdown and that Asian countries could start selling refined Iranian oil to the European Union at the expense of the local refineries and the local petroleum industries.
Despite the political claims supporting an oil embargo against Iran, neither will Saudi Arabia be able to fill the void of Iranian oil exports to the European Union or other markets. A shortfall in oil supplies and the production changes could have spiralling effects in the European Union and on the costs of industrial production, transportation, and market prices. The prediction is that the E.U. will effectively be deepening the crisis in the euro area or Eurozone.
Moreover, the rise in everyday prices, ranging from food to transportation, will not be limited to the European Union, but will have global ramifications. As prices rise on a global scale, the economies in Latin American, Caribbean, African, Middle Eastern, Asian, and Pacific countries will face new hardship, which the financial sector in the U.S. and several of its partners – including members of the European Union – could capitalize on by taking over certain sectors and markets. The IMF and World Bank, as the Bretton Woods proxies of Wall Street, could get into the mix and impose more privatization programs benefiting the financial sectors of the U.S. and its main partners. Furthermore, how Iran decides to sell the 18% of oil it will stop selling to E.U. members will also be a mediating factor.
The Ghosts of the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo: Libya and the International Energy Agency
While countries in Africa or the Pacific have no strategic oil reserves and will be at the mercy of global price increases, the U.S. and the European Union have worked and tried to strategically insulate themselves from such scenarios. This is where the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) comes into the picture. Libyan oil reserves are also a factor to the hostilities and petro-politics involving Iran.
The IEA was created after the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo. As mentioned earlier it is a “strategic wing of the Western Bloc’s Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).” The OECD is a club of countries that includes the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Denmark, Japan, Canada, South Korea, Turkey, Australia, Israel, and New Zealand. It is essentially based on the contours of the Western Bloc, which is comprised of America’s allies and satellites. Aside from Israel, Chile, Estonia, Iceland, Slovenia, and Mexico all the members of the OECD are members of the IEA.
Since its creation in 1974, one of the responsibilities of the IEA has been to stock strategic oil reserves for the OECD countries. During the NATO war against Libya the IEA actually opened its strategic oil reserves to compensate for the void left by a lack of Libyan oil exports. The only other two times this happened were in 1991, when Washington led a military coalition in its first war against Iraq, and in 2005, when Hurricane Katrina devastated the United States.
The war in Libya had many purposes:
(1) preventing African unity;
(2) driving China out of Africa;
(3) strategically controlling important energy reserves; and
(4) guarding oil supplies in the scenario of any American-led conflicts against Syria and Iran.
What the NATO war in Libya has done is secure oil output from Libya, because there was a chance that the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya under Colonial Muammar Qaddafi could have suspended oil sales to the European Union in support of Syria or Iran in possible conflicts with the U.S., NATO, and Israel. It is also interesting to note that one of the Libyan figures that helped enable the war against Libya in the United Nations was Sliman Bouchuiguir, the head of the Libyan League for Human Rights (LLHR) and the current Libyan ambassador to Switzerland, who worked on formulating a strategy against allowing oil from being used as a strategic weapon to insure that the 1973 oil crisis never repeat itself for the U.S. and its allies.
Aside from Iran, the Syrians have also been a source of oil imports for the European Union. Like Iran, the E.U. has also cut their bloc off from Syrian oil via a sanctions regime engineered by the U.S. government. With Iranian and Syrian oil cut off from the E.U., the strategic value of Libyan oil rises. In this regard, the reports about the deployment of thousands of U.S. troops to Libyan oil fields can also be analyzed as being coordinated or tied to the growing U.S. and E.U. hostilities with Syria and Iran. Rerouting Libyan oil shipments to the E.U. that were intended for China can also be part of such a strategy.
The Psychological War
In reality, the sanctions regime engineered by the U.S. government against Iran has gone as far as it can go. All the speeches about Iranian isolation are bravado and far from the reality of current international relations and trade. Brazil, Russia, China, India, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and various countries in the post-Soviet space, Asia, Africa, and Latin America have all refused to join the sanctions against the Iranian economy.
The E.U. oil embargo, coupled with the broader sanctions against Iran, has broad psychological implications. Iran and its ally Syria both face a multi-dimensional war that has economic, covert, diplomatic, media, and psychological scopes.
The psychological war, which involves the mainstream media as a tool of foreign policy and war, constitutes an efficient propaganda instrument for the U.S. due to its lower costs. Yet, the psychological war can be fought on both sides.
Much of the power of the U.S. is psychological and tied to fear. Like the geography of the Persian Gulf, time is on Iran’s side and working against the United States.
If Iran continues on its present course and is undeterred by sanctions, this will help break a critical psychological threshold, which around the world tends to discourage countries from confronting and opposing the United States.
Should many countries continue to refuse to bow down to the Obama Administration pertaining to the impostion of sanctions against Iran, this will also be a blow to the prestige and power of the U.S., which would also have economic and financial implications.
Moreover, at the end of the day, the E.U. oil embargo will hurt the E.U. instead of Iran. In the long-term it could also hurt the United States.
Structurally, the effects of the E.U. oil embargo will further entrench the E.U. in the orbit of Washington, but these effects will catalyze growing social opposition to Washington, which will eventually manifest in the political and economic arenas.
Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya is a Sociologist and award-winning author. He is a Research Associate at the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), Montreal. He specializes on the Middle East and Central Asia. He has been a contributor and guest discussing the broader Middle East on numerous international programs and networks such as Al Jazeera, Press TV, teleSUR and Russia Today. His writings have been published in more than ten languages. He also writes for the Strategic Culture Foundation (SCF), Moscow.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=28973
jeudi 2 février 2012
The Real Economic Picture: "There is No Recovery"
If you have any money and you want to understand the lies that “your” government tells you with statistics, subscribe to John Williams shadowstats.com.
John Williams is the best and utterly truthful statistician that we the people have.
The charts below come from John Williams Hyperinflation Report, January 25, 2012. The commentary is supplied by me.
Here is the chart of real average weekly earnings deflated by the US government’s own measure of inflation, which as I pointed out in my recent column, Economics Lesson 1, understates true inflation.
This chart (below) shows the behavior of inflation as measured by “our” government’s official measure, CPI-U (bottom line) and John Williams measure which uses the official methodology of when I was Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury. The gap between the top and bottom lines represents the amount of money that was due to Social Security recipients and others whose income was indexed to inflation that was diverted by the government to wars, police state, and bankers’ bailouts.
This next chart shows the gains that gold and the Swiss franc have made against the US dollar. The Swiss franc is the top line and gold is the bottom. When gold and the Swiss franc rise, the dollar is falling. Notice that during President Reagan’s first term, when I was in the Treasury, gold and the Swiss franc dropped, that is, the dollar rose in purchasing power. Obviously, the supply-side policy that Reagan implemented strengthened the US dollar. It was only with the advent of the Bush policy of endless trillion dollar wars, reaffirmed by Obama, that the US dollar and economy collapsed relative to gold and hard currencies.
The recent drop in the Swiss franc is due to the Swiss government announcing that the country’s exports could not tolerate any further run up in the franc’s value, and that the Swiss central bank would print new francs to accommodate future inflows of dollars and euros. In other words, Switzerland was forced to import US inflation in order to protect its exports.
Here is nonfarm payroll employment. As you can see, the US economy has been in recession for four years despite the easiest monetary policy and largest government deficits in US history.
Here is consumer confidence. Do you see a recovery despite all the recovery hype from politicians and the financial media?
Here is housing starts. Do you see a recovery?
Here is real GDP deflated according to the methodology used when I was in the US Treasury.
Here is real retail sales deflated by the traditional, as contrasted with the current, substitution-based, measure of inflation.
These graphs courtesy of John Williams make it completely clear that there is no economic recovery. In place of recovery, we have hype from politicians, Wall Street, and the presstitute media. The “recovery” is no more real than Iraqi “weapons of mass destruction” or Iranian “nukes” or the Obama regime’s phony story of assassinating last year an undefended Osama bin Laden, allegedly the mastermind of Islamic terrorism, left by al Qaeda to the mercy of a US Seal team, a man who was widely reported to have died from renal failure in December 2001, a man who denied any responsibility for 9/11.
A government and media that will deceive you about simple things such as inflation, unemployment, and GDP growth, will lie to you about everything.
Paul Craig Roberts is a frequent contributor to Global Research. Global Research Articles by Paul Craig Roberts
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=29039
John Williams is the best and utterly truthful statistician that we the people have.
The charts below come from John Williams Hyperinflation Report, January 25, 2012. The commentary is supplied by me.
Here is the chart of real average weekly earnings deflated by the US government’s own measure of inflation, which as I pointed out in my recent column, Economics Lesson 1, understates true inflation.
This chart (below) shows the behavior of inflation as measured by “our” government’s official measure, CPI-U (bottom line) and John Williams measure which uses the official methodology of when I was Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury. The gap between the top and bottom lines represents the amount of money that was due to Social Security recipients and others whose income was indexed to inflation that was diverted by the government to wars, police state, and bankers’ bailouts.
This next chart shows the gains that gold and the Swiss franc have made against the US dollar. The Swiss franc is the top line and gold is the bottom. When gold and the Swiss franc rise, the dollar is falling. Notice that during President Reagan’s first term, when I was in the Treasury, gold and the Swiss franc dropped, that is, the dollar rose in purchasing power. Obviously, the supply-side policy that Reagan implemented strengthened the US dollar. It was only with the advent of the Bush policy of endless trillion dollar wars, reaffirmed by Obama, that the US dollar and economy collapsed relative to gold and hard currencies.
The recent drop in the Swiss franc is due to the Swiss government announcing that the country’s exports could not tolerate any further run up in the franc’s value, and that the Swiss central bank would print new francs to accommodate future inflows of dollars and euros. In other words, Switzerland was forced to import US inflation in order to protect its exports.
Here is nonfarm payroll employment. As you can see, the US economy has been in recession for four years despite the easiest monetary policy and largest government deficits in US history.
Here is consumer confidence. Do you see a recovery despite all the recovery hype from politicians and the financial media?
Here is housing starts. Do you see a recovery?
Here is real GDP deflated according to the methodology used when I was in the US Treasury.
Here is real retail sales deflated by the traditional, as contrasted with the current, substitution-based, measure of inflation.
These graphs courtesy of John Williams make it completely clear that there is no economic recovery. In place of recovery, we have hype from politicians, Wall Street, and the presstitute media. The “recovery” is no more real than Iraqi “weapons of mass destruction” or Iranian “nukes” or the Obama regime’s phony story of assassinating last year an undefended Osama bin Laden, allegedly the mastermind of Islamic terrorism, left by al Qaeda to the mercy of a US Seal team, a man who was widely reported to have died from renal failure in December 2001, a man who denied any responsibility for 9/11.
A government and media that will deceive you about simple things such as inflation, unemployment, and GDP growth, will lie to you about everything.
Paul Craig Roberts is a frequent contributor to Global Research. Global Research Articles by Paul Craig Roberts
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=29039
ارتفاع معدل البطالة في منطقة اليورو لأعلى مستوياته عند 10.4%
سجل معدل البطالة في منطقة اليورو أعلى مستوياته منذ طرح العملة الموحدة وذلك بعد يوم من تعهد قادة الاتحاد الأوروبي بالتركيز على خلق ملايين الوظائف الجديدة في مسعى لإنعاش الاقتصاد الأوروبي الذي يعاني من الكساد. وأكدت احصاءات مكتب إحصاءات الاتحاد الأوروبي يوروستات في بيان له: "إن البطالة المعدلة لأخذ عوامل موسمية في الحسبان بين الدول السبع عشرة الأعضاء في منطقة اليورو ارتفعت إلى 10.4% في كانون الأول الماضي وهي نفس النسبة المعدلة بالزيادة في شهر تشرين الثاني الماضي، مؤكداً إن هذا المعدل هو الأعلى منذ حزيران عام 1998 قبل تدشين اليورو عام 1999.
وأظهرت البيانات أن 20 ألف شحض آخرين فقدوا وظائفهم في كانون الأول الماضي مقارنة مع الشهر السابق ما رفع أعداد العاطلين إلى 16.5مليون في أنحاء منطقة اليورو.
وفي أحدث مؤشر على التفاوت في الأداء الاقتصادي بين دول منطقة اليورو أظهرت بيانات منفصلة تراجع معدل البطالة في ألمانيا إلى 6.7% خلال الشهر الجاري وهو مستوى منخفض قياسي جديد منذ إعادة توحيد ألمانيا.
وكان معدل البطالة في منطقة اليورو ارتفع بصورة مطردة خلال 2011 بسبب تعثر النمو وكساد يلوح في الأفق.
رويترز
http://kassioun.org/index.php?mode=article&id=18717
وأظهرت البيانات أن 20 ألف شحض آخرين فقدوا وظائفهم في كانون الأول الماضي مقارنة مع الشهر السابق ما رفع أعداد العاطلين إلى 16.5مليون في أنحاء منطقة اليورو.
وفي أحدث مؤشر على التفاوت في الأداء الاقتصادي بين دول منطقة اليورو أظهرت بيانات منفصلة تراجع معدل البطالة في ألمانيا إلى 6.7% خلال الشهر الجاري وهو مستوى منخفض قياسي جديد منذ إعادة توحيد ألمانيا.
وكان معدل البطالة في منطقة اليورو ارتفع بصورة مطردة خلال 2011 بسبب تعثر النمو وكساد يلوح في الأفق.
رويترز
http://kassioun.org/index.php?mode=article&id=18717
lundi 30 janvier 2012
jeudi 19 janvier 2012
Mecanopolis » Ce n’est pas une crise, c’est une reconfiguration de l’économie mondiale (deuxième partie)
L’extinction finale vers laquelle nous entraîne l’ordre mondialiste est devenue en très peu de temps notre avenir officiel. Qu’elle soit considérée sous l’angle des crises économiques successives, des mouvements de populations, du dérèglement climatique, de la démographie, de l’empoisonnement de la nourriture, de l’air et du sol, du climat généralisé de pré guerre civile qui prédomine partout, sous tous ceux-là ou sous d’autres encore – car les rubriques du catastrophisme ne manquent pas – la réalité du désastre en cours n’est plus seulement admise du bout des lèvres, elle est désormais détaillée en permanence pas les propagandistes étatiques et médiatiques.
Mais le catalogue de ces désastres n’est porté aux masses (intégralement formées par les artifices de cette propagande, quelles que soient leurs illusions là-dessus) que dans l’unique but de provoquer la succession de chocs émotionnels nécessaires pour les contraindre d’entériner des « choix » qu’aucune résolution démocratique n’aurait pu permettre. Et d’ailleurs, puisque c’en est l’objectif, on peut être maintenant assuré que c’est toute la démocratie qui est vouée à disparaitre à court terme.
Il n’y aura donc bientôt plus d’alternatives qu’entre la soumission et le pur nihilisme, et ceux qui refuseront de répéter en boucle les mensonges de la caste qui gère la domination – et qui opère désormais au grand jour – peuvent s’attendre à être très prochainement traités comme le sont en temps de guerre les déserteurs et les saboteurs, puisqu’ils auront démontré avoir le « profil » du terroriste en puissance (1).
Cependant, contre ce qui prend l’allure d’un destin, notre rôle reste de garder présent à l’esprit que des occasions inattendues de renverser le cours des choses, ne serais-ce que le temps d’un éclair, restent toujours envisageables dans un système si imprévisible pour lui-même : la liberté de briser l’enfermement mondialiste est la seule expérience qui vaille la peine d’être tentée.
Mecanopolis
II. Détruire la classe moyenne
Le vieillissement de la population accentue effectivement de façon croissante l’inutilité de la classe moyenne (que l’on définit généralement comme les citoyens qui gagnent entre 1200 et 3000€ par mois en France) pour le capitalisme, car on estime qu’après 65 ans, une personne de la classe moyenne coûte une somme plus importante en retraite et en frais de santé que la totalité de ce qu’elle a rapporté à l’État et aux entreprises par ses impôts et sa consommation pendant toute la durée de sa vie active. C’est en tout cas la constatation que Jacques Attali fait dans son livre « L’homme nomade », dans lequel il a la sympathie de recommander l’euthanasie à toute personne de plus de 65 ans.
De part et d’autre de cette classe moyenne, il y a la classe aisée (celle qui possède suffisamment d’argent pour faire tourner l’économie grâce à la consommation importante qu’elle peut se permettre et aux rentrées non négligeables que cela induit pour les entreprises, ainsi que pour l’État par l’intermédiaire des impôts), et la classe populaire (celle qui se contente de produire et de fournir les matières premières pendant qu’elle retire juste assez d’argent de son travail pour survivre). Ce sont les deux moteurs du capitalisme : l’une fournit les ressources, et les autres s’enrichissent de leur exploitation et alimentent l’économie en faisant circuler leurs capitaux.
Mais la classe moyenne ne remplit ni l’un ni l’autre des critères de façon satisfaisante pour que son existence soit appréciable au capitalisme ; au contraire, elle vit aux frais de ce dernier. C’est pourquoi tout est fait pour élargir le fossé entre classe aisée et classe pauvre, selon le principe « les riches toujours plus riches, les pauvres toujours plus pauvres ». Ces deux graphiques montrent de façon éloquente à quel point on tente d’effacer une classe moyenne obsolète :
De 1955 à 1975:
De 1975 à aujourd’hui :
Ajoutons à cela que les moyens toujours élargis de mécanisation du travail aboutissent à un remplacement toujours plus important du travail humain par des machines, permettant aux entreprises de payer moins de salaires (ce qui ne se répercute pas forcément dans les prix de leurs produits, sauf pour des raisons de concurrence). Humainement, on imaginerait qu’il serait logique que ceux dont les machines ont remplacé l’emploi se voient garantis du même salaire qu’auparavant tout en n’ayant plus à effectuer le même travail, puisque c’est avant tout du ressort de la technologie d’accroître le bien-être des hommes en les soulageant d’une part relative d’effort. Mais dans notre dure réalité, cela se traduit plutôt par la mise au chômage de ces personnes et par la prise du profit par les employeurs. Tout cela mène à la société 20/80.
III. Vers une société 80/20
La Loi de Pareto, aussi appelée loi des 80/20, est une loi empirique inspirée par les observations de Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923), économiste et sociologue italien : environ 80 % des effets est le produit de 20 % des causes. Cette « loi », bien qu’empirique, a été formalisée en mathématiques par la distribution de Pareto.
Pareto avait remarqué que 20% de la population italienne détenait 80% des richesses du pays.
Quelques exemples pour mieux illustrer l’idée :
• 20% des moyens permettent d’atteindre 80% des objectifs.
• 20% des produits ou des clients représentent 80% du chiffre d’affaires.
• 20% des ventes représentent environ 80% de la marge bénéficiaire.
• 20% de votre activité fournit 80% du résultat de votre activité.
• 20% de vos résultats proviennent de 80% de votre temps.
Le mot tittytainment fut utilisé en 1995 par Zbigniew Brzezinski, idéologue néolibéral, membre de la commission trilatérale et ex-conseiller du Président des États-Unis Jimmy Carter, pendant la conclusion du premier « State Of The World Forum », qui eut lieu à l’Hôtel Fairmont, dans la ville de San Francisco. L’objectif de la rencontre était d’analyser l’état du monde, de fixer des objectifs souhaitables et les moyens de les atteindre, et de définir la politique globale utile à leur mise en œuvre [Cf. la technique managériale des entreprises]. Les dirigeants réunis à San Francisco (Mikael Gorbachov, George H W Bush, Margaret Thatcher, Vaclav Havel, Bill Gates, Ted Turner, etc.) sont arrivés à la conclusion que l’arrivée de la dénommée Société 20/80 (basée sur le principe de la Loi de Pareto) est inévitable, celle dans laquelle le travail de 20% de la population mondiale sera suffisant pour soutenir la totalité de l’appareil économique de la planète. La population restante (80 %) s’avèrera superflue, et, ne disposant pas de travail ni d’aucune forme d’occupation, nourrira une frustration croissante.
C’est ici qu’entre en jeu le tittytainment, concept de Brzezinski. Brzezinski a proposé le tittytainment, un mélange d’aliment physique et psychologique, pour endormir les masses et contrôler leurs frustrations et protestations prévisibles. Brzezinski définit le tittytainment, comme une combinaison des mots anglais « tits » (« seins » en jargon américain) et « entertainment ». Ce mot fait allusion à l’effet calmant, anesthésiant de l’allaitement maternel sur le bébé.
Puisque nos « élites » projettent de longue date d’établir cette loi de Pareto en véritable modèle de société, nous pouvons penser en toute logique qu’ils ne se gêneront pas d’utiliser des moyens peu scrupuleux pour atteindre une méthode qui multipliera leurs profits et leur pouvoir.
Régis Mex, pour Mecanopolis
Afin d’étayer notre propos, nous publierons dans les jours à venir : IV. Restructurer par le chaos ; V. Réduire la population mondiale
Note :
1. Lire Faut-il sanctionner les écrits conspirationnistes ?
http://www.mecanopolis.org/?p=24414
Mais le catalogue de ces désastres n’est porté aux masses (intégralement formées par les artifices de cette propagande, quelles que soient leurs illusions là-dessus) que dans l’unique but de provoquer la succession de chocs émotionnels nécessaires pour les contraindre d’entériner des « choix » qu’aucune résolution démocratique n’aurait pu permettre. Et d’ailleurs, puisque c’en est l’objectif, on peut être maintenant assuré que c’est toute la démocratie qui est vouée à disparaitre à court terme.
Il n’y aura donc bientôt plus d’alternatives qu’entre la soumission et le pur nihilisme, et ceux qui refuseront de répéter en boucle les mensonges de la caste qui gère la domination – et qui opère désormais au grand jour – peuvent s’attendre à être très prochainement traités comme le sont en temps de guerre les déserteurs et les saboteurs, puisqu’ils auront démontré avoir le « profil » du terroriste en puissance (1).
Cependant, contre ce qui prend l’allure d’un destin, notre rôle reste de garder présent à l’esprit que des occasions inattendues de renverser le cours des choses, ne serais-ce que le temps d’un éclair, restent toujours envisageables dans un système si imprévisible pour lui-même : la liberté de briser l’enfermement mondialiste est la seule expérience qui vaille la peine d’être tentée.
Mecanopolis
II. Détruire la classe moyenne
Le vieillissement de la population accentue effectivement de façon croissante l’inutilité de la classe moyenne (que l’on définit généralement comme les citoyens qui gagnent entre 1200 et 3000€ par mois en France) pour le capitalisme, car on estime qu’après 65 ans, une personne de la classe moyenne coûte une somme plus importante en retraite et en frais de santé que la totalité de ce qu’elle a rapporté à l’État et aux entreprises par ses impôts et sa consommation pendant toute la durée de sa vie active. C’est en tout cas la constatation que Jacques Attali fait dans son livre « L’homme nomade », dans lequel il a la sympathie de recommander l’euthanasie à toute personne de plus de 65 ans.
De part et d’autre de cette classe moyenne, il y a la classe aisée (celle qui possède suffisamment d’argent pour faire tourner l’économie grâce à la consommation importante qu’elle peut se permettre et aux rentrées non négligeables que cela induit pour les entreprises, ainsi que pour l’État par l’intermédiaire des impôts), et la classe populaire (celle qui se contente de produire et de fournir les matières premières pendant qu’elle retire juste assez d’argent de son travail pour survivre). Ce sont les deux moteurs du capitalisme : l’une fournit les ressources, et les autres s’enrichissent de leur exploitation et alimentent l’économie en faisant circuler leurs capitaux.
Mais la classe moyenne ne remplit ni l’un ni l’autre des critères de façon satisfaisante pour que son existence soit appréciable au capitalisme ; au contraire, elle vit aux frais de ce dernier. C’est pourquoi tout est fait pour élargir le fossé entre classe aisée et classe pauvre, selon le principe « les riches toujours plus riches, les pauvres toujours plus pauvres ». Ces deux graphiques montrent de façon éloquente à quel point on tente d’effacer une classe moyenne obsolète :
De 1955 à 1975:
De 1975 à aujourd’hui :
Ajoutons à cela que les moyens toujours élargis de mécanisation du travail aboutissent à un remplacement toujours plus important du travail humain par des machines, permettant aux entreprises de payer moins de salaires (ce qui ne se répercute pas forcément dans les prix de leurs produits, sauf pour des raisons de concurrence). Humainement, on imaginerait qu’il serait logique que ceux dont les machines ont remplacé l’emploi se voient garantis du même salaire qu’auparavant tout en n’ayant plus à effectuer le même travail, puisque c’est avant tout du ressort de la technologie d’accroître le bien-être des hommes en les soulageant d’une part relative d’effort. Mais dans notre dure réalité, cela se traduit plutôt par la mise au chômage de ces personnes et par la prise du profit par les employeurs. Tout cela mène à la société 20/80.
III. Vers une société 80/20
La Loi de Pareto, aussi appelée loi des 80/20, est une loi empirique inspirée par les observations de Vilfredo Pareto (1848-1923), économiste et sociologue italien : environ 80 % des effets est le produit de 20 % des causes. Cette « loi », bien qu’empirique, a été formalisée en mathématiques par la distribution de Pareto.
Pareto avait remarqué que 20% de la population italienne détenait 80% des richesses du pays.
Quelques exemples pour mieux illustrer l’idée :
• 20% des moyens permettent d’atteindre 80% des objectifs.
• 20% des produits ou des clients représentent 80% du chiffre d’affaires.
• 20% des ventes représentent environ 80% de la marge bénéficiaire.
• 20% de votre activité fournit 80% du résultat de votre activité.
• 20% de vos résultats proviennent de 80% de votre temps.
Le mot tittytainment fut utilisé en 1995 par Zbigniew Brzezinski, idéologue néolibéral, membre de la commission trilatérale et ex-conseiller du Président des États-Unis Jimmy Carter, pendant la conclusion du premier « State Of The World Forum », qui eut lieu à l’Hôtel Fairmont, dans la ville de San Francisco. L’objectif de la rencontre était d’analyser l’état du monde, de fixer des objectifs souhaitables et les moyens de les atteindre, et de définir la politique globale utile à leur mise en œuvre [Cf. la technique managériale des entreprises]. Les dirigeants réunis à San Francisco (Mikael Gorbachov, George H W Bush, Margaret Thatcher, Vaclav Havel, Bill Gates, Ted Turner, etc.) sont arrivés à la conclusion que l’arrivée de la dénommée Société 20/80 (basée sur le principe de la Loi de Pareto) est inévitable, celle dans laquelle le travail de 20% de la population mondiale sera suffisant pour soutenir la totalité de l’appareil économique de la planète. La population restante (80 %) s’avèrera superflue, et, ne disposant pas de travail ni d’aucune forme d’occupation, nourrira une frustration croissante.
C’est ici qu’entre en jeu le tittytainment, concept de Brzezinski. Brzezinski a proposé le tittytainment, un mélange d’aliment physique et psychologique, pour endormir les masses et contrôler leurs frustrations et protestations prévisibles. Brzezinski définit le tittytainment, comme une combinaison des mots anglais « tits » (« seins » en jargon américain) et « entertainment ». Ce mot fait allusion à l’effet calmant, anesthésiant de l’allaitement maternel sur le bébé.
Puisque nos « élites » projettent de longue date d’établir cette loi de Pareto en véritable modèle de société, nous pouvons penser en toute logique qu’ils ne se gêneront pas d’utiliser des moyens peu scrupuleux pour atteindre une méthode qui multipliera leurs profits et leur pouvoir.
Régis Mex, pour Mecanopolis
Afin d’étayer notre propos, nous publierons dans les jours à venir : IV. Restructurer par le chaos ; V. Réduire la population mondiale
Note :
1. Lire Faut-il sanctionner les écrits conspirationnistes ?
http://www.mecanopolis.org/?p=24414
Mecanopolis » Le profiteur, un fascisme financier ?
Je me vois obligé aujourd’hui de faire entendre ma voix, car ayant été rendu attentif à certains faits qui me laissent pantois, il me faut les faire connaître plutôt que de les enterrer comme on le fait d’habitude dans notre beau pays.
Jusqu’à aujourd’hui je pensais que la Suisse mettait l’accent sur l’inventivité et sur la création de nouvelles entreprises. Cependant il s’agit là d’un rideau de fumée: en effet, est-ce que le poids de l’administration, ses exigences et ses toujours nouvelles réglementations ne vont pas bientôt tuer toute velléité d’inventivité, de création d’entreprises et de nouvelles places de travail? Le tout est couronné par des règles nouvelles en matière bancaire, règles issues de notre soumission à l’accord liberticide américain appelé le «Patriot’s Act» qui, sous prétexte de protéger nos peuples des dangers du terrorisme mis à toutes les sauces, a eu comme effet de réduire à l’extrême nos libertés et nos droits.
Echange de renseignements à l’international, interdiction de passer les frontières avec des sommes importantes, liberté donnée aux banques d’exiger des clients, qui veulent transférer des sommes d’une certaine importance, des justificatifs ou le plan détaillé des projets dans lesquels ils veulent investir, quitte à ainsi livrer les secrets d’affaires que ces mêmes banques peuvent alors capter pour leur plus grand bénéfice. Les banques deviennent ainsi juge et partie, au mépris du droit élémentaire à chacun de disposer de ses biens, retard systématique mis par ces mêmes grandes banques commerciales de créditer les sommes reçues pour ainsi pouvoir encaisser des jours d’intérêt qui devraient appartenir au client, comme aussi retarder les payements instruits par le client, soit disant propriétaire de son argent. Quelle belle réputation pour la place financière suisse! Déjà bien mise à mal par les voltefaces toujours renouvelées de nos autorités quant à la protection de notre fameux et folklorique secret bancaire.
A qui profite donc cette destruction lente et continue de cette industrie typiquement suisse, créatrice de richesses et d’emplois pour notre pays, la banque et la gestion de fortunes, sinon à ceux qui aimeraient bien voir disparaître cette activité: les places financières de Londres et celles des Etats-Unis, les banques d’affaires américaines et certains groupes d’intérêts internationaux et discrets auxquels des chefs d’entreprise et politiques de notre pays appartiennent aussi, leur but ultime étant de dominer le monde en éradiquant les gouvernements nationaux et les sentiments patriotiques des peuples ainsi dominés.
La question qui se pose est: nos gouvernements glissent-ils lentement et par touches successives de la démocratie au fascisme pour atteindre en douceur ces objectifs? Telle est la question angoissante qui surgit à voir la lente progression des mesures diverses et variées mises en place afin de museler nos libertés sous le flot du «politically correct» qui nous envahit.
Jean-Antoine Cramer, Genève
http://www.mecanopolis.org/?p=24647
Jusqu’à aujourd’hui je pensais que la Suisse mettait l’accent sur l’inventivité et sur la création de nouvelles entreprises. Cependant il s’agit là d’un rideau de fumée: en effet, est-ce que le poids de l’administration, ses exigences et ses toujours nouvelles réglementations ne vont pas bientôt tuer toute velléité d’inventivité, de création d’entreprises et de nouvelles places de travail? Le tout est couronné par des règles nouvelles en matière bancaire, règles issues de notre soumission à l’accord liberticide américain appelé le «Patriot’s Act» qui, sous prétexte de protéger nos peuples des dangers du terrorisme mis à toutes les sauces, a eu comme effet de réduire à l’extrême nos libertés et nos droits.
Echange de renseignements à l’international, interdiction de passer les frontières avec des sommes importantes, liberté donnée aux banques d’exiger des clients, qui veulent transférer des sommes d’une certaine importance, des justificatifs ou le plan détaillé des projets dans lesquels ils veulent investir, quitte à ainsi livrer les secrets d’affaires que ces mêmes banques peuvent alors capter pour leur plus grand bénéfice. Les banques deviennent ainsi juge et partie, au mépris du droit élémentaire à chacun de disposer de ses biens, retard systématique mis par ces mêmes grandes banques commerciales de créditer les sommes reçues pour ainsi pouvoir encaisser des jours d’intérêt qui devraient appartenir au client, comme aussi retarder les payements instruits par le client, soit disant propriétaire de son argent. Quelle belle réputation pour la place financière suisse! Déjà bien mise à mal par les voltefaces toujours renouvelées de nos autorités quant à la protection de notre fameux et folklorique secret bancaire.
A qui profite donc cette destruction lente et continue de cette industrie typiquement suisse, créatrice de richesses et d’emplois pour notre pays, la banque et la gestion de fortunes, sinon à ceux qui aimeraient bien voir disparaître cette activité: les places financières de Londres et celles des Etats-Unis, les banques d’affaires américaines et certains groupes d’intérêts internationaux et discrets auxquels des chefs d’entreprise et politiques de notre pays appartiennent aussi, leur but ultime étant de dominer le monde en éradiquant les gouvernements nationaux et les sentiments patriotiques des peuples ainsi dominés.
La question qui se pose est: nos gouvernements glissent-ils lentement et par touches successives de la démocratie au fascisme pour atteindre en douceur ces objectifs? Telle est la question angoissante qui surgit à voir la lente progression des mesures diverses et variées mises en place afin de museler nos libertés sous le flot du «politically correct» qui nous envahit.
Jean-Antoine Cramer, Genève
http://www.mecanopolis.org/?p=24647
La guerre financière globale, l’escalade dans le golfe Persique et les menaces vitales contre le système des pétrodollars
Standards & Poor’s – certainement visée par l’ancien Président français Valery Giscard d’Estaing lorsqu’il parlait d’« officines» déstabilisant l’économie européenne – perpétue une stratégie de diversion en dégradant la note de neuf pays de l’Euroland, parmi lesquels la France, l’Italie, le Portugal, l’Autriche et l’Espagne. L’entreprise financière Standards & Poor’s, critiquée depuis une décennie pour son incapacité à prédire l’effondrement d’Enron, de Lehman Brothers et plus récemment de MF Global, provoque donc un choc psychologique en France à 100 jours de l’élection présidentielle, les effets de cette « dégradation » étant sur-amplifiés par une certaine dramatisation médiatique.
Si l’on adhère à la lecture des événements que partagent Valery Giscard d’Estaing, le chercheur Emmanuel Todd ou la présidente du MEDEF Laurence Parisot, la guerre psychologique menée contre l’Europe par les « officines » anglo-saxonnes et leurs relais médiatiques et spéculatifs monte en intensité, l’Euroland étant ciblé dans son ensemble. Pourtant, de l’autre côté de l’océan Atlantique, les États-Unis – qui malgré leurs difficultés structurelles restent la première puissance mondiale sur le plan financier, militaire, culturel et économique – affichent un endettement national de plus de 15 000 000 000 000 de dollars US, pour une dette totale avoisinant les 56 000 000 000 000 de dollars US, selon les chiffres officiels de l’horloge nationale de l’endettement des États-Unis.
Au vu de cette dette gargantuesque, nous pouvons affirmer avec confiance que, dans l’hypothèse où le système des pétrodollars s’effondre du fait de la diversification monétaire dans les échanges commerciaux et pétroliers internationaux, les États-Unis en tant qu’État fédéral font faillite et se retrouvent de facto en catégorie D (« En défaut »), quelle que soit la position des agences de notation. Dans ce contexte, les généraux du Pentagone, qui représentent l’omnipuissant complexe militaro-financier-énergétique des États-Unis, ne peuvent accepter la politique d’abandon du dollar comme monnaie d’échanges pétroliers qui est menée par l’Iran, en ce qu’elle constitue par essence une menace vitale contre le système des pétrodollars. Par conséquent, tout porte à croire que les généraux du Comité des chefs d’État-major interarmées du Pentagone (JCS) planifient un conflit armé contre l’Iran, comme l’indiquent les dernières déclarations du général Dempsey – qui dirige le JCS – et de Leon Panetta, le secrétaire à la Défense à l’origine du récent durcissement rhétorique visant l’Iran (avant l’offensive économique, psychologique et stratégique actuelle).
Aujourd’hui, les États-Unis mènent à l’égard de l’Iran une guerre économique totale, accompagnée de mouvements militaires à grande échelle. Ce déploiement stratégique est axé sur le positionnement prochain d’au moins deux porte-avions US dans le golfe Persique (l’USS Carl Vinson étant censé relever l’USS John Stennis, avant d’être rejoint par l’USS Abraham Lincoln). Cette importante planification écourte les nuits du commandant en chef de l’US Navy, l’amiral Jonathan Greenert, selon ses propres déclarations publiques.
Depuis le naufrage de l’USS Maine dans le port de Cuba en 1898, dont l’exploitation médiatique provoqua la guerre hispano-américaine, en passant par les mystérieux incidents du golfe du Tonkin du 4 août 1964 qui précipitèrent les États-Unis dans la guerre contre le Nord-Vietnam, l’Histoire militaire des États-Unis reste entachée de zones d’ombres lorsqu’il est question des incidents navals comme casus belli, et plus généralement des justifications précipitant les forces armées US dans leurs récentes guerres. Sachant que Dick Cheney avait songé, selon Seymour Hersh, à organiser une attaque sous faux pavillon contre des navires de la 5ème flotte des États-Unis – envisageant une opération contre la flotte US par des Navy Seals grimés en Gardes révolutionnaire iraniens à proximité du détroit d’Ormuz – une provocation navale immédiatement attribuée à l’Iran semblerait suffire au déchainement de la puissance militaire des États-Unis contre un Iran déterminé à résister. Il semblerait que de telles provocations soient en cours au moment où ces lignes sont écrites. Quoi qu’il en soit, l’on pourrait penser qu’en ne réagissant pas militairement à la politique étrangère de l’Iran, les hauts responsables US auraient beaucoup plus à craindre de l’effondrement du système des pétrodollars que d’une guerre contre l’Iran, aux conséquences pourtant incalculables au vu du contexte économique et financier particulièrement volatile (quoique propice aux augmentations constantes du prix des hydrocarbures). Sans surprise, les pétromonarchies du Golfe et Israël soutiennent ouvertement cette guerre.
Quoi qu’il en soit, à travers la politique étrangère iranienne, le statu quo des pétrodollars semble sérieusement menacé. Aujourd’hui, la Chine achète le pétrole iranien en euros, et les États-Unis ne semblent pas en mesure d’influer sur la politique chinoise vis-à-vis de l’Iran, les relations sino-iraniennes datant de la période préislamique, au 1er siècle avant Jésus Christ. L’Inde est en train de mettre en place un système d’achat de l’or noir perse en roupies. Enfin, la Russie s’apprête à mettre en œuvre avec l’Iran un accord d’échanges pétroliers et commerciaux en rial et en roubles. Comme elle l’a fait il y a quelques mois avec la Russie, le Chine a également adopté avec le Japon un système d’échanges énergétiques et commerciaux centré sur leurs monnaies respectives. La suprématie du dollar comme monnaie de réserve internationale est donc indiscutablement mis à mal. Toutefois, le système des pétrodollars qui l’impose depuis des décennies est encore plus dangereusement remis en cause par une politique d’affirmation de puissance invariablement menée par l’Iran.
Comme l’a écrit avec justesse Peter Dale Scott à l’aube du conflit ayant déstructuré la Libye, « La question du pétrole est étroitement liée à celle du dollar, car le statut du dollar comme monnaie de réserve mondiale dépend largement de la décision de l’OPEP de libeller les achats du pétrole de l’OPEP en dollars. L’économie actuelle des pétrodollars se fonde sur deux accords secrets passés durant les années 1970 avec les Saoudiens pour recycler les pétrodollars dans l’économie des États-Unis. Le premier de ces accords assurait une participation spéciale et durable de l’Arabie saoudite dans la santé du dollar US ; le second sécurisait un soutien saoudien continuel pour la tarification de l’intégralité du pétrole de l’OPEP en dollars. Ces deux accords garantissaient que l’économie des États-Unis ne serait pas affaiblie par les hausses de prix du pétrole de l’OPEP. Depuis lors, le plus lourd fardeau a en fait été porté par les économies des pays les moins développés, qui doivent acheter des dollars pour leurs fournitures en pétrole. Comme Ellen Brown l’a relevé, d’abord l’Irak et ensuite la Libye ont décidé de défier le système des pétrodollars et de stopper leurs ventes de pétrole en dollars, peu avant que ces deux pays ne soient attaqués ». Aujourd’hui, l’Iran semble être dans cette position de « cible » chez les planificateurs militaires du Pentagone. Toutefois, ce pays vient de démontrer qu’il est opérationnellement capable de boucher l’aorte d’une économie mondiale fragilisée et instable : le détroit d’Ormuz.
Maxime Chaix, traducteur et analyste politique indépendant.
Articles de Maxime Chaix publiés par Mondialisation.ca
Si l’on adhère à la lecture des événements que partagent Valery Giscard d’Estaing, le chercheur Emmanuel Todd ou la présidente du MEDEF Laurence Parisot, la guerre psychologique menée contre l’Europe par les « officines » anglo-saxonnes et leurs relais médiatiques et spéculatifs monte en intensité, l’Euroland étant ciblé dans son ensemble. Pourtant, de l’autre côté de l’océan Atlantique, les États-Unis – qui malgré leurs difficultés structurelles restent la première puissance mondiale sur le plan financier, militaire, culturel et économique – affichent un endettement national de plus de 15 000 000 000 000 de dollars US, pour une dette totale avoisinant les 56 000 000 000 000 de dollars US, selon les chiffres officiels de l’horloge nationale de l’endettement des États-Unis.
Au vu de cette dette gargantuesque, nous pouvons affirmer avec confiance que, dans l’hypothèse où le système des pétrodollars s’effondre du fait de la diversification monétaire dans les échanges commerciaux et pétroliers internationaux, les États-Unis en tant qu’État fédéral font faillite et se retrouvent de facto en catégorie D (« En défaut »), quelle que soit la position des agences de notation. Dans ce contexte, les généraux du Pentagone, qui représentent l’omnipuissant complexe militaro-financier-énergétique des États-Unis, ne peuvent accepter la politique d’abandon du dollar comme monnaie d’échanges pétroliers qui est menée par l’Iran, en ce qu’elle constitue par essence une menace vitale contre le système des pétrodollars. Par conséquent, tout porte à croire que les généraux du Comité des chefs d’État-major interarmées du Pentagone (JCS) planifient un conflit armé contre l’Iran, comme l’indiquent les dernières déclarations du général Dempsey – qui dirige le JCS – et de Leon Panetta, le secrétaire à la Défense à l’origine du récent durcissement rhétorique visant l’Iran (avant l’offensive économique, psychologique et stratégique actuelle).
Aujourd’hui, les États-Unis mènent à l’égard de l’Iran une guerre économique totale, accompagnée de mouvements militaires à grande échelle. Ce déploiement stratégique est axé sur le positionnement prochain d’au moins deux porte-avions US dans le golfe Persique (l’USS Carl Vinson étant censé relever l’USS John Stennis, avant d’être rejoint par l’USS Abraham Lincoln). Cette importante planification écourte les nuits du commandant en chef de l’US Navy, l’amiral Jonathan Greenert, selon ses propres déclarations publiques.
Depuis le naufrage de l’USS Maine dans le port de Cuba en 1898, dont l’exploitation médiatique provoqua la guerre hispano-américaine, en passant par les mystérieux incidents du golfe du Tonkin du 4 août 1964 qui précipitèrent les États-Unis dans la guerre contre le Nord-Vietnam, l’Histoire militaire des États-Unis reste entachée de zones d’ombres lorsqu’il est question des incidents navals comme casus belli, et plus généralement des justifications précipitant les forces armées US dans leurs récentes guerres. Sachant que Dick Cheney avait songé, selon Seymour Hersh, à organiser une attaque sous faux pavillon contre des navires de la 5ème flotte des États-Unis – envisageant une opération contre la flotte US par des Navy Seals grimés en Gardes révolutionnaire iraniens à proximité du détroit d’Ormuz – une provocation navale immédiatement attribuée à l’Iran semblerait suffire au déchainement de la puissance militaire des États-Unis contre un Iran déterminé à résister. Il semblerait que de telles provocations soient en cours au moment où ces lignes sont écrites. Quoi qu’il en soit, l’on pourrait penser qu’en ne réagissant pas militairement à la politique étrangère de l’Iran, les hauts responsables US auraient beaucoup plus à craindre de l’effondrement du système des pétrodollars que d’une guerre contre l’Iran, aux conséquences pourtant incalculables au vu du contexte économique et financier particulièrement volatile (quoique propice aux augmentations constantes du prix des hydrocarbures). Sans surprise, les pétromonarchies du Golfe et Israël soutiennent ouvertement cette guerre.
Quoi qu’il en soit, à travers la politique étrangère iranienne, le statu quo des pétrodollars semble sérieusement menacé. Aujourd’hui, la Chine achète le pétrole iranien en euros, et les États-Unis ne semblent pas en mesure d’influer sur la politique chinoise vis-à-vis de l’Iran, les relations sino-iraniennes datant de la période préislamique, au 1er siècle avant Jésus Christ. L’Inde est en train de mettre en place un système d’achat de l’or noir perse en roupies. Enfin, la Russie s’apprête à mettre en œuvre avec l’Iran un accord d’échanges pétroliers et commerciaux en rial et en roubles. Comme elle l’a fait il y a quelques mois avec la Russie, le Chine a également adopté avec le Japon un système d’échanges énergétiques et commerciaux centré sur leurs monnaies respectives. La suprématie du dollar comme monnaie de réserve internationale est donc indiscutablement mis à mal. Toutefois, le système des pétrodollars qui l’impose depuis des décennies est encore plus dangereusement remis en cause par une politique d’affirmation de puissance invariablement menée par l’Iran.
Comme l’a écrit avec justesse Peter Dale Scott à l’aube du conflit ayant déstructuré la Libye, « La question du pétrole est étroitement liée à celle du dollar, car le statut du dollar comme monnaie de réserve mondiale dépend largement de la décision de l’OPEP de libeller les achats du pétrole de l’OPEP en dollars. L’économie actuelle des pétrodollars se fonde sur deux accords secrets passés durant les années 1970 avec les Saoudiens pour recycler les pétrodollars dans l’économie des États-Unis. Le premier de ces accords assurait une participation spéciale et durable de l’Arabie saoudite dans la santé du dollar US ; le second sécurisait un soutien saoudien continuel pour la tarification de l’intégralité du pétrole de l’OPEP en dollars. Ces deux accords garantissaient que l’économie des États-Unis ne serait pas affaiblie par les hausses de prix du pétrole de l’OPEP. Depuis lors, le plus lourd fardeau a en fait été porté par les économies des pays les moins développés, qui doivent acheter des dollars pour leurs fournitures en pétrole. Comme Ellen Brown l’a relevé, d’abord l’Irak et ensuite la Libye ont décidé de défier le système des pétrodollars et de stopper leurs ventes de pétrole en dollars, peu avant que ces deux pays ne soient attaqués ». Aujourd’hui, l’Iran semble être dans cette position de « cible » chez les planificateurs militaires du Pentagone. Toutefois, ce pays vient de démontrer qu’il est opérationnellement capable de boucher l’aorte d’une économie mondiale fragilisée et instable : le détroit d’Ormuz.
Maxime Chaix, traducteur et analyste politique indépendant.
Articles de Maxime Chaix publiés par Mondialisation.ca
mercredi 18 janvier 2012
Global Systemic Economic Crisis - 2012: The Year of the World’s Great Geopolitical Swing
This GEAB issue makes it six years that the LEAP/E2020 team have shared their anticipations with their subscribers and readers of their public briefing on the development of the global systemic crisis each month. And, for the first time, in the January issue which presents a summary of our anticipations for the year to come, our team anticipates a year which will not result solely in a worsening of the world crisis but which will also be characterized by the emergence of the first constructive elements of the “world after the crisis” to use Franck Biancheri’s phrase from his book « The World Crisis: The Path to the World Afterwards ».
According to LEAP/E2020, 2012 will in fact be the year of the world’s great geopolitical swing: a phenomenon which will without any doubt be the bearer of serious difficulties for most of the planet but which will also allow the emergence of geopolitical conditions favourable to an improvement of the situation in the years to come. Contrary to the previous years, 2012 will not be a “wasted” year, stuck in the “world before the crisis”, through lack of audacity, initiative and imagination on the part of the world’s leaders and because of people’s great passivity since the beginning of the crisis.
We had qualified 2011 as the “ruthless year” because it was going to shatter the illusions of all those who thought that the crisis was under control and that they were going to be able to go back to their “private deals” as in the past. And 2011 was ruthless for many political leaders, the financial sector, investors, Western debts, world growth, the US economy and for the absence of Euroland governance. Those who believed themselves untouchable or a permanent fixture suddenly discovered that the crisis saved nothing or no-one. This trend will, of course, continue in 2012 because the crisis does not respect the Gregorian calendar either. The last “untouchables” will experience it: the United States, the United Kingdom, the Dollar, T-Bonds, Russian and Chinese leaders,… (1) But 2012 will also see, especially in the second half, the forces and players assert themselves who in 2013 and the following years will enable the beginning of the rebuilding a new international system, reflecting the expectations and power struggles of the XXIst century and no longer those of the middle of the XXth century. Therein, 2012 will well be the year of the great swing between yesterday’s and tomorrow’s world. A year of transition, it will mix the worst (2) and the best. But in so doing, for our team, it nevertheless constitutes the first constructive year since 2006 (3).
Incidentally, in this issue we present the 35 developments/subjects, which are equally recommendations, which we anticipate will mark 2012: 20 developments rising and 15 subjects falling. This list can thus be of great practical help to the GEAB reader to prepare for the coming year. Reducing the time wasted reading articles on subjects which are already secondary in terms of impact on the course of the events or, on the contrary, taking the time to look further into developments which tomorrow will be at the core of coming developments, not to be taken by surprise by the major developments of the coming year, that’s what we want this 2012 list of 35 “Up and Down” to be used for. For six years, with a success rate of between 75% and 85%, this annual anticipation is thus a particularly practical decision-making aid for the twelve months to come.
In addition in this issue, our team gives an in-depth analysis of the nature and consequences of a possible QE3 which the US Federal Reserve might launch in 2012 (4). Hoped for by some, dreaded by others, QE3 is generally presented as the ultimate weapon to save the US economy and financial system which, contrary to the dominating chatter of these last weeks, continues to deteriorate (5). Whether the FED launches out with QE3 or not, QE3 will be without any doubt the major financial event of 2012 whose consequences will mark the world financial and monetary system definitively. This GEAB issue will enable you to have a precise idea on the subject.
Change in Primary Dealer Treasury Holdings by Maturity (12/2010 – 10/2011) (in grey: Bills less than one year/in red: Coupons less than 3 years/in green 3 to 6 years/in mauve: 6 to 11 years) – Source: Zerohedge, 10/2011
Change in Primary Dealer Treasury Holdings by Maturity (12/2010 – 10/2011) (in grey: Bills less than one year/in red: Coupons less than 3 years/in green 3 to 6 years/in mauve: 6 to 11 years) – Source: Zerohedge, 10/2011
And QE3 will play a determining role in the world’s great geopolitical swing in 2012 because this year will, in particular, see the last attempts of the world’s dominant powers of before-the-crisis to maintain their global power, whether it be in strategic, economic or financial matters. When we use the term “last” we want to stress that after 2012 their power will be weakened too much to still be able to claim maintaining this privileged situation. The recent S&P downgrade of the majority of the Euroland countries is a typical example of these last chance attempts: pushed by Wall Street and the City, and because of their insatiable financing needs (6), the United States and United Kingdom have arrived at the point of engaging in open financial warfare with their last allies, the Europeans. It’s geopolitical suicide because this attitude obliges Euroland to reinforce and integrate still more and whilst dissociating itself from the United States and United Kingdom; whilst the vast majority of the Eurozone leaders and the populations have finally understood that there really was a transatlantic and cross-Channel war being conducted against them (7). LEAP/E2020 will present its anticipations on this subject - “Europe 2012-2016” - in the next GEAB issue which will appear on the 15th February, 2012.
Western debt distribution (2011) (in light blue: non-financial sector debt/in green: financial sector debt/ in orange: public debt/in dark blue: household debt) – Sources: Haver analytics / Morgan Stanley, 01/2012
Western debt distribution (2011) (in light blue: non-financial sector debt/in green: financial sector debt/ in orange: public debt/in dark blue: household debt) – Sources: Haver analytics / Morgan Stanley, 01/2012
On another agenda, the attempts to create a “little cold war” with China or setting a trap for Iran on the question of free movement in the Strait of Hormuz arise from the same reaction (8). We’ll return to that in more in detail in this issue.
The great swing of 2012 is also that of the people. Because 2012 will be also the year of people’s anger. It’s the year when the people will massively enter on the global systemic crisis’ stage. 2011 has been a “warm-up lap” where the pioneers tested methods and strategies. In 2012, the people will assert themselves as the forces at the origin of the major swings which will mark this turning point. They will do it pro-actively because they will create the conditions of decisive political changes via elections (as it will be the case in France with the ousting of Nicolas Sarkozy (9)) or via mass demonstrations (the United States, the Arab world, the United Kingdom and Russia). And they will also do it more passively by generating fear in their leaders, obliging the latter to take a “pre-emptive” attitude to avoid a major political shock (as it will be the case in China (10) or in several European countries). In both cases, whatever the elite of the countries concerned think, it’s a constructive phenomenon because nothing important or lasting can emerge from this crisis if the people do not involve themselves (11).
The great swing of 2012 is also the accelerated collapse of the Western banks and financial institutions’ power which is a reality described in this issue, contrary to the current populist chatter which forgets that the starry sky that we look at is an image of a long-gone reality. The crisis is such a speeding-up of history that many have not yet understood that the power of the banks which they worry about is that which they had before 2008. It’s a subject with which we deal in detail in this issue. At the same time, one continues to see investors flee the stock markets and financial assets particularly in the USA (12).
State debt and economic output of industrialized countries (1991-2011) (in grey: GDP/in red: public debt) - Source: Spiegel, 01/2012
State debt and economic output of industrialized countries (1991-2011) (in grey: GDP/in red: public debt) - Source: Spiegel, 01/2012
And the great swing is finally the arrival at maturity of the BRICS, who after five years of self-seeking and taking their bearings will, in 2012, start to have a strong and pro-active influence on international decisions (13). However, without any possible doubt, they constitute one of the essential players for the emergence of the world after the crisis; and a player who contrary to the United States and the United Kingdom knows that it’s in its interest to help Euroland get through this crisis (14).
With a Euroland stabilized and equipped with a solid governance, the end of 2012 will thus present itself as the first opportunity of founding the bases of a world whose roots won’t bury themselves in the Second World War aftermath any more. Ironically, it’s probably the Moscow G20 summit in 2013, the first to be held outside the Western camp, which will crystallize the promises of the second half of 2012.
Notes:
(1) And the European debt crisis serial until the end of the first half of 2012. The year will also be very difficult for Euroland as the scenarios prepared by OFCE show. But it will prove distinctly less difficult than the financial experts and media anticipate today because they underestimate on the one hand the progress made as regards Euroland governance which will bear fruit in second half of 2012; and on the other, the change in psychological context once the world’s attention transfers to the US and British problems. On this subject, here a new example of Euro misinformation published by MarketWatch on 01/09/2012: the columnist, David Marsh, tries to give credit to the idea that the spring 2012 French presidential election will be more bad news for the Euro by explicitly stating that François Hollande is an Eurosceptic. As everyone knows in France, François Hollande is, on the contrary, a pro-European and fiercely pro-Euro which leaves only two options relating to MarketWatch/Marsh: either they don’t know what they are talking about, or they are deliberately lying. In both cases, that throws some light on the value of the opinions of the major US financial press on the Euro and its future. Those who follow it will lose a lot of money! Still concerning Euroland, the Spiegel of 01/03/2012 offers an interesting plunge into how Merkozysme works which shows how much the two countries are definitively binding their destinies: a development which will accelerate after François Hollande’s election that won’t have, like Sarkozy, a foot in Euroland and a foot in Washington.
(2) In particular a continuation of the widespread rise in unemployment. Source: Tribune, 31/10/2011
(3) A poetic note makes it possible to illustrate our approach here, which follows on the basis of the methodology of political anticipation described in the “Manual of Political Anticipation” by Marie-Hélène Caillol, the LEAP president. What should be remembered about the winter solstice? That it marks the heart of the winter because it’s the shortest day? Or that it announces spring because from this date the days start to get longer? Both answers are correct. But the first doesn’t say much about the future except that it will continue to be dark and probably cold for a certain period of time; it’s a photograph, a motionless analysis. On the other hand, the second answer leads the gaze to a more remote future and underlines the existence of a process in action which will lead to changes in terms of the length of the day and perhaps the temperature; it’s a dynamic vision of events. Moreover, henceforth the methodology of political anticipation has its place in scientific debate since Marie-Hélène Caillol has been invited to contribute to an issue especially dedicated to Anticipation (Volume 41, Issue 1,2012) (coordinated by Professor Mihai Nadin) of the US science magazine the “International Journal of General Systems” (Francis & Taylor), a multidisciplinary periodical devoted primarily to the publication of original research contributions to system science, basic and applied. The article which resulted from this collaboration is entitled: “Political Anticipation: observing and understanding the global socio-economic trends with the objective of guiding the decision-making process”.
(4) The recent publication of the 2006 FED minutes perfectly illustrates one of our working hypotheses: the persons in charge of a complex system are generally unable to perceive the moment when it will swing in crisis or chaos. As was the case of Alan Greenspan, Timothy Geithner and associates in 2006, it’s the case of the masters of the City, Wall Street or Washington in 2012... who happen to be the same in a number of cases. Source: New York Times, 12/01/2012
(5) The US situation’s deterioration is occurring in spite of the wish to hide it by the main media and rating agencies; whilst in Euroland the situation has not deteriorated as much as these same media and agencies would like one to believe. By dropping a little time to time, the outcome is thus no longer in any doubt. As regards US economic deterioration, it’s enough to note the collapse of bank profits, of US consumption (the advertisements blaring out the holidays thus gave way to quite poor figures), continuous closings or bankruptcies of retail networks, unemployment kept at historic rates, the growing problem of paying pensions, budget collapse of the large public universities,… Sources: YahooNews, 12/01/201; Bloomberg, 12/01/2012; USAToday, 12/01/2012; CNBC, 28/12/2011; Washington Post, 27/12/2011
(6) As the table below shows, with a debt to GDP ratio of 900%, the United Kingdom is like an animal caught in a debt trap. And because of the British financial sector’s enormous weight of debt, it’s condemned to try and force Euroland to pay Greek debts by any means, etc… The Western public debt downgrade is a bazooka pointed on the heart of the Kingdom, the City. Source: Guardian, 01/01/2012
(7) All the better because there is nothing worse than being at war without knowing it as Franck Biancheri wrote on Twitter commenting on the French presidential election campaign twitter.com/Fbiancheri2012.
(8) Russia already made its choice by developing trade with Iran in Roubles and Rials, eliminating the US Dollar from transactions between the two countries. As for Europe, it is fidgeting under US pressure, but ultimately won’t make a big deal as regards an embargo because by June (a new date to make a decision), the political map will have really changed. Sources: Bloomberg, 07/01/2012; Le Monde, 09/01/2012
(9) That which, by the way, will put France in its historical “Gallic-European” relationship instead of the occidentalist anchorage which embodied the Sarkozy interlude. Source: Le Monde, 11/01/2012
(10) In China, according to LEAP/E2020, the risk of a major grassroots explosion is at the crossroads of a tense economic situation (which will be the case in 2012 - see this GEAB issue) and a public health major accident; much more than in a context of direct political reconsideration.
(11) The advert by the Egyptian Muslim brothers that they will subject the peace treaty with Israel to a referendum belongs to this same trend. Source: Haaretz, 02/01/2012
(12) Source: CNBC, 06/01/2012
(13) The Chinese leaders, for example, seem more determined than ever to follow the path which they consider the best (including the conquest of space, a symbol par excellence of leadership), rejecting external pressures. Source: Caixin, 04/01/2012; ChinaDaily, 30/12/2011; NewYork Times, 29/12/2012
(14) Source: 20Minutes/Suisse, 08/01/2012
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=28718
According to LEAP/E2020, 2012 will in fact be the year of the world’s great geopolitical swing: a phenomenon which will without any doubt be the bearer of serious difficulties for most of the planet but which will also allow the emergence of geopolitical conditions favourable to an improvement of the situation in the years to come. Contrary to the previous years, 2012 will not be a “wasted” year, stuck in the “world before the crisis”, through lack of audacity, initiative and imagination on the part of the world’s leaders and because of people’s great passivity since the beginning of the crisis.
We had qualified 2011 as the “ruthless year” because it was going to shatter the illusions of all those who thought that the crisis was under control and that they were going to be able to go back to their “private deals” as in the past. And 2011 was ruthless for many political leaders, the financial sector, investors, Western debts, world growth, the US economy and for the absence of Euroland governance. Those who believed themselves untouchable or a permanent fixture suddenly discovered that the crisis saved nothing or no-one. This trend will, of course, continue in 2012 because the crisis does not respect the Gregorian calendar either. The last “untouchables” will experience it: the United States, the United Kingdom, the Dollar, T-Bonds, Russian and Chinese leaders,… (1) But 2012 will also see, especially in the second half, the forces and players assert themselves who in 2013 and the following years will enable the beginning of the rebuilding a new international system, reflecting the expectations and power struggles of the XXIst century and no longer those of the middle of the XXth century. Therein, 2012 will well be the year of the great swing between yesterday’s and tomorrow’s world. A year of transition, it will mix the worst (2) and the best. But in so doing, for our team, it nevertheless constitutes the first constructive year since 2006 (3).
Incidentally, in this issue we present the 35 developments/subjects, which are equally recommendations, which we anticipate will mark 2012: 20 developments rising and 15 subjects falling. This list can thus be of great practical help to the GEAB reader to prepare for the coming year. Reducing the time wasted reading articles on subjects which are already secondary in terms of impact on the course of the events or, on the contrary, taking the time to look further into developments which tomorrow will be at the core of coming developments, not to be taken by surprise by the major developments of the coming year, that’s what we want this 2012 list of 35 “Up and Down” to be used for. For six years, with a success rate of between 75% and 85%, this annual anticipation is thus a particularly practical decision-making aid for the twelve months to come.
In addition in this issue, our team gives an in-depth analysis of the nature and consequences of a possible QE3 which the US Federal Reserve might launch in 2012 (4). Hoped for by some, dreaded by others, QE3 is generally presented as the ultimate weapon to save the US economy and financial system which, contrary to the dominating chatter of these last weeks, continues to deteriorate (5). Whether the FED launches out with QE3 or not, QE3 will be without any doubt the major financial event of 2012 whose consequences will mark the world financial and monetary system definitively. This GEAB issue will enable you to have a precise idea on the subject.
Change in Primary Dealer Treasury Holdings by Maturity (12/2010 – 10/2011) (in grey: Bills less than one year/in red: Coupons less than 3 years/in green 3 to 6 years/in mauve: 6 to 11 years) – Source: Zerohedge, 10/2011
Change in Primary Dealer Treasury Holdings by Maturity (12/2010 – 10/2011) (in grey: Bills less than one year/in red: Coupons less than 3 years/in green 3 to 6 years/in mauve: 6 to 11 years) – Source: Zerohedge, 10/2011
And QE3 will play a determining role in the world’s great geopolitical swing in 2012 because this year will, in particular, see the last attempts of the world’s dominant powers of before-the-crisis to maintain their global power, whether it be in strategic, economic or financial matters. When we use the term “last” we want to stress that after 2012 their power will be weakened too much to still be able to claim maintaining this privileged situation. The recent S&P downgrade of the majority of the Euroland countries is a typical example of these last chance attempts: pushed by Wall Street and the City, and because of their insatiable financing needs (6), the United States and United Kingdom have arrived at the point of engaging in open financial warfare with their last allies, the Europeans. It’s geopolitical suicide because this attitude obliges Euroland to reinforce and integrate still more and whilst dissociating itself from the United States and United Kingdom; whilst the vast majority of the Eurozone leaders and the populations have finally understood that there really was a transatlantic and cross-Channel war being conducted against them (7). LEAP/E2020 will present its anticipations on this subject - “Europe 2012-2016” - in the next GEAB issue which will appear on the 15th February, 2012.
Western debt distribution (2011) (in light blue: non-financial sector debt/in green: financial sector debt/ in orange: public debt/in dark blue: household debt) – Sources: Haver analytics / Morgan Stanley, 01/2012
Western debt distribution (2011) (in light blue: non-financial sector debt/in green: financial sector debt/ in orange: public debt/in dark blue: household debt) – Sources: Haver analytics / Morgan Stanley, 01/2012
On another agenda, the attempts to create a “little cold war” with China or setting a trap for Iran on the question of free movement in the Strait of Hormuz arise from the same reaction (8). We’ll return to that in more in detail in this issue.
The great swing of 2012 is also that of the people. Because 2012 will be also the year of people’s anger. It’s the year when the people will massively enter on the global systemic crisis’ stage. 2011 has been a “warm-up lap” where the pioneers tested methods and strategies. In 2012, the people will assert themselves as the forces at the origin of the major swings which will mark this turning point. They will do it pro-actively because they will create the conditions of decisive political changes via elections (as it will be the case in France with the ousting of Nicolas Sarkozy (9)) or via mass demonstrations (the United States, the Arab world, the United Kingdom and Russia). And they will also do it more passively by generating fear in their leaders, obliging the latter to take a “pre-emptive” attitude to avoid a major political shock (as it will be the case in China (10) or in several European countries). In both cases, whatever the elite of the countries concerned think, it’s a constructive phenomenon because nothing important or lasting can emerge from this crisis if the people do not involve themselves (11).
The great swing of 2012 is also the accelerated collapse of the Western banks and financial institutions’ power which is a reality described in this issue, contrary to the current populist chatter which forgets that the starry sky that we look at is an image of a long-gone reality. The crisis is such a speeding-up of history that many have not yet understood that the power of the banks which they worry about is that which they had before 2008. It’s a subject with which we deal in detail in this issue. At the same time, one continues to see investors flee the stock markets and financial assets particularly in the USA (12).
State debt and economic output of industrialized countries (1991-2011) (in grey: GDP/in red: public debt) - Source: Spiegel, 01/2012
State debt and economic output of industrialized countries (1991-2011) (in grey: GDP/in red: public debt) - Source: Spiegel, 01/2012
And the great swing is finally the arrival at maturity of the BRICS, who after five years of self-seeking and taking their bearings will, in 2012, start to have a strong and pro-active influence on international decisions (13). However, without any possible doubt, they constitute one of the essential players for the emergence of the world after the crisis; and a player who contrary to the United States and the United Kingdom knows that it’s in its interest to help Euroland get through this crisis (14).
With a Euroland stabilized and equipped with a solid governance, the end of 2012 will thus present itself as the first opportunity of founding the bases of a world whose roots won’t bury themselves in the Second World War aftermath any more. Ironically, it’s probably the Moscow G20 summit in 2013, the first to be held outside the Western camp, which will crystallize the promises of the second half of 2012.
Notes:
(1) And the European debt crisis serial until the end of the first half of 2012. The year will also be very difficult for Euroland as the scenarios prepared by OFCE show. But it will prove distinctly less difficult than the financial experts and media anticipate today because they underestimate on the one hand the progress made as regards Euroland governance which will bear fruit in second half of 2012; and on the other, the change in psychological context once the world’s attention transfers to the US and British problems. On this subject, here a new example of Euro misinformation published by MarketWatch on 01/09/2012: the columnist, David Marsh, tries to give credit to the idea that the spring 2012 French presidential election will be more bad news for the Euro by explicitly stating that François Hollande is an Eurosceptic. As everyone knows in France, François Hollande is, on the contrary, a pro-European and fiercely pro-Euro which leaves only two options relating to MarketWatch/Marsh: either they don’t know what they are talking about, or they are deliberately lying. In both cases, that throws some light on the value of the opinions of the major US financial press on the Euro and its future. Those who follow it will lose a lot of money! Still concerning Euroland, the Spiegel of 01/03/2012 offers an interesting plunge into how Merkozysme works which shows how much the two countries are definitively binding their destinies: a development which will accelerate after François Hollande’s election that won’t have, like Sarkozy, a foot in Euroland and a foot in Washington.
(2) In particular a continuation of the widespread rise in unemployment. Source: Tribune, 31/10/2011
(3) A poetic note makes it possible to illustrate our approach here, which follows on the basis of the methodology of political anticipation described in the “Manual of Political Anticipation” by Marie-Hélène Caillol, the LEAP president. What should be remembered about the winter solstice? That it marks the heart of the winter because it’s the shortest day? Or that it announces spring because from this date the days start to get longer? Both answers are correct. But the first doesn’t say much about the future except that it will continue to be dark and probably cold for a certain period of time; it’s a photograph, a motionless analysis. On the other hand, the second answer leads the gaze to a more remote future and underlines the existence of a process in action which will lead to changes in terms of the length of the day and perhaps the temperature; it’s a dynamic vision of events. Moreover, henceforth the methodology of political anticipation has its place in scientific debate since Marie-Hélène Caillol has been invited to contribute to an issue especially dedicated to Anticipation (Volume 41, Issue 1,2012) (coordinated by Professor Mihai Nadin) of the US science magazine the “International Journal of General Systems” (Francis & Taylor), a multidisciplinary periodical devoted primarily to the publication of original research contributions to system science, basic and applied. The article which resulted from this collaboration is entitled: “Political Anticipation: observing and understanding the global socio-economic trends with the objective of guiding the decision-making process”.
(4) The recent publication of the 2006 FED minutes perfectly illustrates one of our working hypotheses: the persons in charge of a complex system are generally unable to perceive the moment when it will swing in crisis or chaos. As was the case of Alan Greenspan, Timothy Geithner and associates in 2006, it’s the case of the masters of the City, Wall Street or Washington in 2012... who happen to be the same in a number of cases. Source: New York Times, 12/01/2012
(5) The US situation’s deterioration is occurring in spite of the wish to hide it by the main media and rating agencies; whilst in Euroland the situation has not deteriorated as much as these same media and agencies would like one to believe. By dropping a little time to time, the outcome is thus no longer in any doubt. As regards US economic deterioration, it’s enough to note the collapse of bank profits, of US consumption (the advertisements blaring out the holidays thus gave way to quite poor figures), continuous closings or bankruptcies of retail networks, unemployment kept at historic rates, the growing problem of paying pensions, budget collapse of the large public universities,… Sources: YahooNews, 12/01/201; Bloomberg, 12/01/2012; USAToday, 12/01/2012; CNBC, 28/12/2011; Washington Post, 27/12/2011
(6) As the table below shows, with a debt to GDP ratio of 900%, the United Kingdom is like an animal caught in a debt trap. And because of the British financial sector’s enormous weight of debt, it’s condemned to try and force Euroland to pay Greek debts by any means, etc… The Western public debt downgrade is a bazooka pointed on the heart of the Kingdom, the City. Source: Guardian, 01/01/2012
(7) All the better because there is nothing worse than being at war without knowing it as Franck Biancheri wrote on Twitter commenting on the French presidential election campaign twitter.com/Fbiancheri2012.
(8) Russia already made its choice by developing trade with Iran in Roubles and Rials, eliminating the US Dollar from transactions between the two countries. As for Europe, it is fidgeting under US pressure, but ultimately won’t make a big deal as regards an embargo because by June (a new date to make a decision), the political map will have really changed. Sources: Bloomberg, 07/01/2012; Le Monde, 09/01/2012
(9) That which, by the way, will put France in its historical “Gallic-European” relationship instead of the occidentalist anchorage which embodied the Sarkozy interlude. Source: Le Monde, 11/01/2012
(10) In China, according to LEAP/E2020, the risk of a major grassroots explosion is at the crossroads of a tense economic situation (which will be the case in 2012 - see this GEAB issue) and a public health major accident; much more than in a context of direct political reconsideration.
(11) The advert by the Egyptian Muslim brothers that they will subject the peace treaty with Israel to a referendum belongs to this same trend. Source: Haaretz, 02/01/2012
(12) Source: CNBC, 06/01/2012
(13) The Chinese leaders, for example, seem more determined than ever to follow the path which they consider the best (including the conquest of space, a symbol par excellence of leadership), rejecting external pressures. Source: Caixin, 04/01/2012; ChinaDaily, 30/12/2011; NewYork Times, 29/12/2012
(14) Source: 20Minutes/Suisse, 08/01/2012
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=28718
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